Related papers: Geometric Infinitely Divisible Autoregressive Mode…
Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift. To bridge…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…
This paper considers confidence intervals (CIs) for the autoregressive (AR) parameter in an AR model with an AR parameter that may be close or equal to one. Existing CIs rely on the assumption of a stationary or fixed initial condition to…
The object of this paper is to study the asymptotic dependence structure of the linear time series models with infinitely divisible innovations by the use of their characteristic functions. Autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models and…
In this article we introduce a three-parameter extension of the bivariate exponential-geometric (BEG) law (Kozubowski and Panorska, 2005). We refer to this new distribution as bivariate gamma-geometric (BGG) law. A bivariate random vector…
Statistical applications often involve the calculation of intractable multidimensional integrals. The Laplace formula is widely used to approximate such integrals. However, in high-dimensional or small sample size problems, the shape of the…
Generative state estimators based on probabilistic filters and smoothers are one of the most popular classes of state estimators for robots and autonomous vehicles. However, generative models have limited capacity to handle rich sensory…
We present a probabilistic model where the latent variable respects both the distances and the topology of the modeled data. The model leverages the Riemannian geometry of the generated manifold to endow the latent space with a well-defined…
In this paper we obtain a Bernstein type inequality for the sum of self-adjoint centered and geometrically absolutely regular random matrices with bounded largest eigenvalue. This inequality can be viewed as an extension to the matrix…
In this paper, we extend the G-expectation theory to infinite dimensions. Such notions as a covariation set of G-normal distributed random variables, viscosity solution, a stochastic integral driven by G-Brownian motion are introduced and…
We propose a new method for simplification of Gaussian process (GP) models by projecting the information contained in the full encompassing model and selecting a reduced number of variables based on their predictive relevance. Our results…
In this article, we study linearly edge-reinforced random walk on general multi-level ladders for large initial edge weights. For infinite ladders, we show that the process can be represented as a random walk in a random environment, given…
Variational methods are employed in situations where exact Bayesian inference becomes intractable due to the difficulty in performing certain integrals. Typically, variational methods postulate a tractable posterior and formulate a lower…
We present an architecture which lets us train deep, directed generative models with many layers of latent variables. We include deterministic paths between all latent variables and the generated output, and provide a richer set of…
Most of the stationary first-order autoregressive integer-valued (INAR(1)) models were developed for a given thinning operator using either the forward approach or the backward approach. In the forward approach the marginal distribution of…
Existing integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models for count random fields suffer from difficulties in characterizing the stationary marginal distribution and in computing conditional probabilities (as required for likelihood inference).…
The random coefficient integer-valued autoregressive process was introduced by Zheng, Basawa, and Datta. In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of this model (in particular, weak limits of extreme values and the growth rate of…
The composition of multiple Gaussian Processes as a Deep Gaussian Process (DGP) enables a deep probabilistic nonparametric approach to flexibly tackle complex machine learning problems with sound quantification of uncertainty. Existing…
In this paper, we study an additive model where the response variable is Hilbert-space-valued and predictors are multivariate Euclidean, and both are possibly imperfectly observed. Considering Hilbert-space-valued responses allows to cover…
We introduce a random partition model for Bayesian nonparametric regression. The model is based on infinitely-many disjoint regions of the range of a latent covariate-dependent Gaussian process. Given a realization of the process, the…