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Related papers: Observational Causality Testing

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Inferring causal models from observed correlations is a challenging task, crucial to many areas of science. In order to alleviate the computational effort when sifting through possible causal explanations for some given observations, it is…

It is common to conduct causal inference in matched observational studies by proceeding as though treatment assignments within matched sets are assigned uniformly at random and using this distribution as the basis for inference. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Samuel D. Pimentel , Yaxuan Huang

Causality plays a central role in understanding interactions between variables in complex systems. These systems often exhibit state-dependent causal relationships, where both the strength and direction of causality vary with the value of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-08-05 Álvaro Martínez-Sánchez , Adrián Lozano-Durán

Traditional statistical inference in cluster randomized trials typically invokes the asymptotic theory that requires the number of clusters to approach infinity. In this article, we propose an alternative conformal causal inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-03 Bingkai Wang , Fan Li , Mengxin Yu

We study the problem of deriving policies, or rules, that when enacted on a complex system, cause a desired outcome. Absent the ability to perform controlled experiments, such rules have to be inferred from past observations of the system's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-09 Kailash Budhathoki , Mario Boley , Jilles Vreeken

Causal effect estimation from observational data is an important and much studied research topic. The instrumental variable (IV) and local causal discovery (LCD) patterns are canonical examples of settings where a closed-form expression…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-19 Ioan Gabriel Bucur , Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes

Causal machine learning has the potential to revolutionize decision-making by combining the predictive power of machine learning algorithms with the theory of causal inference. However, these methods remain underutilized by the broader…

In many causal inference applications, only one or a few units (or clusters of units) are treated. An important challenge in such settings is that standard inference methods relying on asymptotic theory may be unreliable, even with large…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-22 Luis Alvarez , Bruno Ferman , Kaspar Wüthrich

We consider the problem of determining feasible systems from a finite set of simulated alternatives with respect to probability constraints, where the observations from stochastic simulations are Bernoulli distributed. Most statistically…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Taehoon Kim , Sigrun Andradottir , Seong-Hee Kim , Yuwei Zhou

Randomized controlled trials generate experimental variation that can credibly identify causal effects, but often suffer from limited scale, while observational datasets are large, but often violate desired identification assumptions. To…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-27 George Z. Gui

Probabilities of Causation play a fundamental role in decision making in law, health care and public policy. Nevertheless, their point identification is challenging, requiring strong assumptions such as monotonicity. In the absence of such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-06 Numair Sani , Atalanti A. Mastakouri , Dominik Janzing

The purpose of many health studies is to estimate the effect of an exposure on an outcome. It is not always ethical to assign an exposure to individuals in randomised controlled trials, instead observational data and appropriate study…

Observational cohort studies with oversampled exposed subjects are typically implemented to understand the causal effect of a rare exposure. Because the distribution of exposed subjects in the sample differs from the source population,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-14 Sherri Rose

We aim to create the highest possible quality of treatment-control matches for categorical data in the potential outcomes framework. Matching methods are heavily used in the social sciences due to their interpretability, but most matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-11 Yameng Liu , Aw Dieng , Sudeepa Roy , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

In the causal adjustment setting, variable selection techniques based on either the outcome or treatment allocation model can result in the omission of confounders or the inclusion of spurious variables in the propensity score. We propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-06 Ashkan Ertefaie , Masoud Asgharian , David A. Stephens

'Causal' direction is of great importance when dealing with complex systems. Often big volumes of data in the form of time series are available and it is important to develop methods that can inform about possible causal connections between…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-01-24 Fatimah Abdul Razak , Henrik Jeldtoft Jensen

Integrating data from multiple heterogeneous sources has become increasingly popular to achieve a large sample size and diverse study population. This paper reviews development in causal inference methods that combines multiple datasets…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-05 Xu Shi , Ziyang Pan , Wang Miao

An important step for any causal inference study design is understanding the distribution of the treated and control subjects in terms of measured baseline covariates. However, not all baseline variation is equally important. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-02 Rachael C. Aikens , Michael Baiocchi

Causal inference often hinges on strong assumptions - such as no unmeasured confounding or perfect compliance - that are rarely satisfied in practice. Partial identification offers a principled alternative: instead of relying on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Tobias Maringgele

Over the last decades, many prognostic models based on artificial intelligence techniques have been used to provide detailed predictions in healthcare. Unfortunately, the real-world observational data used to train and validate these models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Alice Bernasconi , Alessio Zanga , Peter J. F. Lucas , Marco Scutari , Fabio Stella
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