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Missing data are ubiquitous in many domains including healthcare. When these data entries are not missing completely at random, the (conditional) independence relations in the observed data may be different from those in the complete data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Ruibo Tu , Kun Zhang , Paul Ackermann , Bo Christer Bertilson , Clark Glymour , Hedvig Kjellström , Cheng Zhang

On time-series data, most causal discovery methods fit a new model whenever they encounter samples from a new underlying causal graph. However, these samples often share relevant information which is lost when following this approach.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Sindy Löwe , David Madras , Richard Zemel , Max Welling

Reasoning about causes and effects naturally arises in the engineering of safety-critical systems. A classical example is Fault Tree Analysis, a deductive technique used for system safety assessment, whereby an undesired state is reduced to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-10-11 Marco Bozzano

Identifying causal relations among multi-variate time series is one of the most important elements towards understanding the complex mechanisms underlying the dynamic system. It provides critical tools for forecasting, simulations and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Yang Sun , Yifan Xie

Algorithms for constraint-based causal discovery select graphical causal models among a space of possible candidates (e.g., all directed acyclic graphs) by executing a sequence of conditional independence tests. These may be used to inform…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-19 Ting-Hsuan Chang , Zijian Guo , Daniel Malinsky

The discovery of structure from time series data is a key problem in fields of study working with complex systems. Most identifiability results and learning algorithms assume the underlying dynamics to be discrete in time. Comparatively…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-04 Alexis Bellot , Kim Branson , Mihaela van der Schaar

We study causal inference in a multi-environment setting, in which the functional relations for producing the variables from their direct causes remain the same across environments, while the distribution of exogenous noises may vary. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-29 AmirEmad Ghassami , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang

Discovering causal relationships from time series data is significant in fields such as finance, climate science, and neuroscience. However, contemporary techniques rely on the simplifying assumption that data originates from the same…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Sumanth Varambally , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Causal modeling has long been an attractive topic for many researchers and in recent decades there has seen a surge in theoretical development and discovery algorithms. Generally discovery algorithms can be divided into two approaches:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-06 Ridho Rahmadi , Perry Groot , Marianne Heins , Hans Knoop , Tom Heskes

Recursive linear structural equation models are widely used to postulate causal mechanisms underlying observational data. In these models, each variable equals a linear combination of a subset of the remaining variables plus an error term.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-21 F. Richard Guo , Emilija Perković

In-context learning for tabular data sets strong predictive standards in observational settings; it however primarily relies on correlational structure, which becomes unreliable under distribution shift or intervention. While established…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Sascha Xu , Sarah Mameche , Jilles Vreeken

This paper develops a framework for identification, estimation, and inference on the causal mechanisms driving endogenous social network formation. Identification is challenging because of unobserved confounders and reverse causality;…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-21 Maximilian Kasy , Elizabeth Linos , Sanaz Mobasseri

This work considers the inverse dynamic source problem arising from the time-domain fluorescence diffuse optical tomography (FDOT). We recover the dynamic distributions of fluorophores in biological tissue by the one single boundary…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Chunlong Sun , Mengmeng Zhang , Zhidong Zhang

We consider the problem of learning a set of direct causes of a target variable from an observational joint distribution. Learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that represent the causal structure is a fundamental problem in science.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Juraj Bodik , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-08-13 Stefan Haufe , Guido Nolte , Klaus-Robert Mueller , Nicole Kraemer

In this paper, we consider multivariate functional time series with a two-way dependence structure: a serial dependence across time points and a graphical interaction among the multiple functions within each time point. We develop the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Jianbin Tan , Decai Liang , Yongtao Guan , Hui Huang

We develop a criterion to certify whether causal effects are identifiable in linear structural equation models with latent variables. Linear structural equation models correspond to directed graphs whose nodes represent the random variables…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-25 Nils Sturma , Mathias Drton

This paper addresses a gap in the current state of the art by providing a solution for modeling causal relationships that evolve over time and occur at different time scales. Specifically, we introduce the multiscale non-stationary directed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Gabriele D'Acunto , Gianmarco De Francisci Morales , Paolo Bajardi , Francesco Bonchi

We develop a principled framework for discovering causal structure in partial differential equations (PDEs) using physics-informed neural networks and counterfactual perturbations. Unlike classical residual minimization or sparse regression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Ronald Katende

In this paper, we focus on estimating the causal effect of an intervention over time on a dynamical system. To that end, we formally define causal interventions and their effects over time on discrete-time stochastic processes (DSPs). Then,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Martina Cinquini , Isacco Beretta , Salvatore Ruggieri , Isabel Valera
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