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Accurate HIV incidence estimation based on individual recent infection status (recent vs long-term infection) is important for monitoring the epidemic, targeting interventions to those at greatest risk of new infection, and evaluating…
Knowledge of the time at which an HIV-infected individual seroconverts, when the immune system starts responding to HIV infection, plays a vital role in the design and implementation of interventions to reduce the impact of the HIV…
Longitudinal cohorts to determine the incidence of HIV infection are logistically challenging, so researchers have sought alternative strategies. Recency test methods use biomarker profiles of HIV-infected subjects in a cross-sectional…
Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation leverages recency test results to determine the HIV incidence of a population of interest, where recency test uses biomarker profiles to infer whether an HIV-positive individual was "recently"…
Cross-sectional incidence estimation based on recency testing has become a widely used tool in HIV research. Recently, this method has gained prominence in HIV prevention trials to estimate the "placebo" incidence that participants might…
Estimating HIV-1 incidence using biomarker assays in cross-sectional surveys is important for understanding the HIV pandemic. However, the utility of these estimates has been limited by uncertainty about what input parameters to use for…
Incidence estimation of HIV infection can be performed using recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) results from a cross-sectional sample. This allows practitioners to understand population trends in the HIV epidemic without having to…
We present a new analysis of relationships between disease incidence and the prevalence of an experimentally defined state of `recent infection'. This leads to a clean separation between biological parameters (properties of disease…
Ending the HIV/AIDS pandemic is among the Sustainable Development Goals for the next decade. In order to overcome the gap between the need for care and the available resources, better understanding of HIV epidemics is needed to guide policy…
We present a new joint longitudinal and survival model aimed at estimating the association between the risk of an event and the change in and history of a biomarker that is repeatedly measured over time. We use cubic B-splines models for…
Understanding historical trends in the epidemic of HIV is important for assessing current and projecting future trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality and for evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of control measures. In…
During primary HIV infection, the kinetics of plasma virus concentrations and CD4+ cell counts is very complex. Parametric and nonparametric models have been suggested for fitting repeated measurements of these markers. Alternatively,…
The Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) is an ongoing project that conducts nationally representative HIV-focused surveys for measuring national and regional progress toward UNAIDS' 90-90-90 targets, the primary strategy to end…
HIV transmission within serodiscordant couples remains a significant public health challenge, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Estimating the rate of such infection, alongside the rates of introduction of infection from outside the…
Key populations at high risk of HIV infection are critical for understanding and monitoring HIV epidemics, but global estimation is hampered by sparse, uneven data. We analyze data from 199 countries for female sex workers (FSW), men who…
Accurate estimation of disease prevalence is essential for guiding public health strategies. Imperfect diagnostic tests can cause misclassification errors-false positives (FP) and false negatives (FN)-that may skew estimates if unaddressed.…
We present a comprehensive statistical methodological framework for estimating contextual exposure to HIV that includes local (grid-cell level) estimation of HIV prevalence and human activity space estimation based on GPS data. The…
This research reports on the relationship and significance of social-economic factors (age, sex, employment status) and modes of HIV/AIDS transmission to the HIV/AIDS spread. Logistic regression model, a form of probabilistic function for…
One of the cornerstones in combating the HIV pandemic is being able to assess the current state and evolution of local HIV epidemics. This remains a complex problem, as many HIV infected individuals remain unaware of their infection status,…
As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, increasing numbers of surveillance sites have been established which allows countries to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, e.g. at sub-national level. However, the epidemic models…