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We formulate natural gradient variational inference (VI), expectation propagation (EP), and posterior linearisation (PL) as extensions of Newton's method for optimising the parameters of a Bayesian posterior distribution. This viewpoint…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-07 William J. Wilkinson , Simo Särkkä , Arno Solin

The broad class of multivariate unified skew-normal (SUN) distributions has been recently shown to possess important conjugacy properties. When used as priors for the coefficients vector in probit, tobit, and multinomial probit models,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-06 Maicon J. Karling , Daniele Durante , Marc G. Genton

We study the consistency of stochastic dynamic programs under converging probability distributions and other approximations. Utilizing results on the epi-convergence of expectation functions with varying measures and integrands, and the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Dominic S. T. Keehan , Johannes O. Royset

This article studies a general divide-and-conquer algorithm for approximating continuous one-dimensional probability distributions with finite mean. The article presents a numerical study that compares pre-existing approximation schemes…

This paper studies the problem of sequential Gaussian shift-in-mean hypothesis testing in a distributed multi-agent network. A sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) type algorithm in a distributed framework of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-09-02 Anit Kumar Sahu , Soummya Kar

We propose an original particle-based implementation of the Loopy Belief Propagation (LPB) algorithm for pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRF) on a continuous state space. The algorithm constructs adaptively efficient proposal distributions…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-22 Thibaut Lienart , Yee Whye Teh , Arnaud Doucet

This paper considers approximate smoothing for discretely observed non-linear stochastic differential equations. The problem is tackled by developing methods for linearising stochastic differential equations with respect to an arbitrary…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-21 Filip Tronarp , Simo Särkkä

In this paper is proposed a new heuristic approach belonging to the field of evolutionary Estimation of Distribution Algorithms (EDAs). EDAs builds a probability model and a set of solutions is sampled from the model which characterizes the…

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-05 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

Signal recovery from unitarily invariant measurements is investigated in this paper. A message-passing algorithm is formulated on the basis of expectation propagation (EP). A rigorous analysis is presented for the dynamics of the algorithm…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-05-22 Keigo Takeuchi

This paper develops a probabilistic anticipation algorithm for dynamic objects observed by an autonomous robot in an urban environment. Predictive Gaussian mixture models are used due to their ability to probabilistically capture continuous…

Robotics · Computer Science 2013-09-04 Frank Havlak , Mark Campbell

Variational methods have been recently considered for scaling the training process of Gaussian process classifiers to large datasets. As an alternative, we describe here how to train these classifiers efficiently using expectation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-17 Daniel Hernández-Lobato , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer hierarchical generalisations of Gaussian processes (GPs) and are formally equivalent to neural networks with multiple, infinitely wide hidden layers. DGPs are probabilistic and non-parametric…

We consider the Bayesian binary regression model and we introduce a new class of distributions, the Perturbed Unified Skew-Normal (pSUN, henceforth), which generalizes the Unified Skew-Normal (SUN) class. We show that the new class is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-13 Paolo Onorati , Brunero Liseo

Doubly intractable distributions arise in many settings, for example in Markov models for point processes and exponential random graph models for networks. Bayesian inference for these models is challenging because they involve intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-03 Jaewoo Park , Murali Haran

Computing smoothing distributions, the distributions of one or more states conditional on past, present, and future observations is a recurring problem when operating on general hidden Markov models. The aim of this paper is to provide a…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-15 Randal Douc , Aurélien Garivier , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson

Many models of interest in the natural and social sciences have no closed-form likelihood function, which means that they cannot be treated using the usual techniques of statistical inference. In the case where such models can be…

Computation · Statistics 2012-07-19 Simon Barthelmé , Nicolas Chopin

Bayesian learning is often hampered by large computational expense. As a powerful generalization of popular belief propagation, expectation propagation (EP) efficiently approximates the exact Bayesian computation. Nevertheless, EP can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-08-30 Yuan Qi , Yandong Guo

Several numerical approximation strategies for the expectation-propagation algorithm are studied in the context of large-scale learning: the Laplace method, a faster variant of it, Gaussian quadrature, and a deterministic version of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-16 Alexis Roche

In this paper, we present a novel distributed expectation propagation algorithm for multiple sensors, multiple objects tracking in cluttered environments. The proposed framework enables each sensor to operate locally while collaboratively…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-09 Qing Li , Runze Gan , James R. Hopgood , Michael E. Davies , Simon J. Godsill