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Volatility models of price fluctuations are well studied in the econometrics literature, with more than 50 years of theoretical and empirical findings. The recent advancements in neural networks (NN) in the deep learning field have…
Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility…
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
In this study, we develop a unified volatility modeling framework that embeds GARCH dynamics directly within recurrent neural networks. We propose two interpretable hybrid architectures, GARCH-GRU and GARCH-LSTM, that integrate the…
Volatility, which indicates the dispersion of returns, is a crucial measure of risk and is hence used extensively for pricing and discriminating between different financial investments. As a result, accurate volatility prediction receives…
We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…
This paper compares recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with different types of gated cells for forecasting time series with multiple seasonality. The cells we compare include classical long short term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit…
Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often…
Volatility is a quantity of measurement for the price movements of stocks or options which indicates the uncertainty within financial markets. As an indicator of the level of risk or the degree of variation, volatility is important to…
In this paper, we develop a hybrid approach to forecasting the volatility and risk of financial instruments by combining common econometric GARCH time series models with deep learning neural networks. For the latter, we employ Gated…
The Stochastic Volatility (SV) model and its variants are widely used in the financial sector while recurrent neural network (RNN) models are successfully used in many large-scale industrial applications of Deep Learning. Our article…
Complex numbers have long been favoured for digital signal processing, yet complex representations rarely appear in deep learning architectures. RNNs, widely used to process time series and sequence information, could greatly benefit from…
Volatility clustering and spillovers are key features of real-world financial time series when there are a lot of cross-sectional financial assets. While network analysis helps connect stocks that are 'similar' or 'correlated', which is…
Representation learning over graph structure data has been widely studied due to its wide application prospects. However, previous methods mainly focus on static graphs while many real-world graphs evolve over time. Modeling such evolution…
Several academics have studied the ability of hybrid models mixing univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and neural networks to deliver better volatility predictions than purely econometric…
Recently artificial neural networks (ANNs) have seen success in volatility prediction, but the literature is divided on where an ANN should be used rather than the common GARCH model. The purpose of this study is to compare the volatility…
It is unquestionable that time series forecasting is of paramount importance in many fields. The most used machine learning models to address time series forecasting tasks are Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). Typically, those models are…
Events such as the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 or the COVID-19 pandemic caused significant losses to banks and insurance entities. They also demonstrated the importance of using accurate equity risk models and having a risk management…
This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…
We propose Neural GARCH, a class of methods to model conditional heteroskedasticity in financial time series. Neural GARCH is a neural network adaptation of the GARCH 1,1 model in the univariate case, and the diagonal BEKK 1,1 model in the…