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We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Kwangho Kim

We provide theoretical investigations into off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning using function approximators for (marginalized) importance weights and value functions. Our contributions include: (1) A new estimator, MWL, that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-08 Masatoshi Uehara , Jiawei Huang , Nan Jiang

Deterministic policy gradient algorithms for continuous control suffer from value estimation biases that degrade performance. While double critics reduce such biases, the exploration potential of double actors remains underexplored.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Haohui Chen , Zhiyong Chen , Aoxiang Liu , Wentuo Fang

Active learning is a powerful tool when labelling data is expensive, but it introduces a bias because the training data no longer follows the population distribution. We formalize this bias and investigate the situations in which it can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-01 Sebastian Farquhar , Yarin Gal , Tom Rainforth

Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-12-31 Shin-ichi Maeda

One aspect of Poisson approximation is that the support of the random variable of interest is often finite while the support of the Poisson distribution is not. In this paper we will remedy this by examining truncated negative binomial (of…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-02 H. L. Gan

Gradient clipping is a commonly used technique to stabilize the training process of neural networks. A growing body of studies has shown that gradient clipping is a promising technique for dealing with the heavy-tailed behavior that emerged…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-26 Shaojie Li , Yong Liu

Screening methods are useful tools for variable selection in regression analysis when the number of predictors is much larger than the sample size. Factor analysis is used to eliminate multicollinearity among predictors, which improves the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Shuntaro Tanaka , Hidetoshi Matsui

Large language model post-training relies on reinforcement learning to improve model capability and alignment quality. However, the off-policy training paradigm introduces distribution shift, which often pushes the policy beyond the trust…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Zhenpeng Su , Leiyu Pan , Minxuan Lv , Tiehua Mei , Zijia Lin , Yuntao Li , Wenping Hu , Ruiming Tang , Kun Gai , Guorui Zhou

Empirical researchers often trim observations with small denominator A when they estimate moments of the form E[B/A]. Large trimming is a common practice to mitigate variance, but it incurs large trimming bias. This paper provides a novel…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-12 Yuya Sasaki , Takuya Ura

Off-policy estimation (OPE) methods enable unbiased offline evaluation of recommender systems, directly estimating the online reward some target policy would have obtained, from offline data and with statistical guarantees. The theoretical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-12 Olivier Jeunen

Importance sampling (IS) is a technique that enables statistical estimation of output performance at multiple input distributions from a single nominal input distribution. IS is commonly used in Monte Carlo simulation for variance reduction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-07 Yijuan Liang , Guangxin Jiang , Michael C. Fu

Importance sampling (IS) represents a fundamental technique for a large surge of off-policy reinforcement learning approaches. Policy gradient (PG) methods, in particular, significantly benefit from IS, enabling the effective reuse of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Matteo Papini , Giorgio Manganini , Alberto Maria Metelli , Marcello Restelli

Bias is a common problem inherent in recommender systems, which is entangled with users' preferences and poses a great challenge to unbiased learning. For debiasing tasks, the doubly robust (DR) method and its variants show superior…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-03-03 Haoxuan Li , Yan Lyu , Chunyuan Zheng , Peng Wu

Recently, GRPO-based reinforcement learning has shown remarkable progress in optimizing flow-matching models, effectively improving their alignment with task-specific rewards. Within these frameworks, the policy update relies on…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-31 Jing Wang , Jiajun Liang , Jie Liu , Henglin Liu , Gongye Liu , Jun Zheng , Wanyuan Pang , Ao Ma , Zhenyu Xie , Xintao Wang , Meng Wang , Pengfei Wan , Xiaodan Liang

Off-policy evaluation provides an essential tool for evaluating the effects of different policies or treatments using only observed data. When applied to high-stakes scenarios such as medical diagnosis or financial decision-making, it is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-30 Ziyang Tang , Yihao Feng , Na Zhang , Jian Peng , Qiang Liu

The estimation of risk measures recently gained a lot of attention, partly because of the backtesting issues of expected shortfall related to elicitability. In this work we shed a new and fundamental light on optimal estimation procedures…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-25 Marcin Pitera , Thorsten Schmidt

Among the most successful methods for sparsifying deep (neural) networks are those that adaptively mask the network weights throughout training. By examining this masking, or dropout, in the linear case, we uncover a duality between such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-04 Daniel LeJeune , Hamid Javadi , Richard G. Baraniuk

Deep learning systems are known to exhibit implicit regularization (alt. implicit bias), favoring simple solutions instead of merely minimizing the loss function. In some cases, we can analytically derive the implicit regularization --…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Joseph H. Rudoler , Kevin Tan , Giles Hooker , Konrad P. Kording

Imbalances in covariates between treatment groups are frequent in observational studies and can lead to biased comparisons. Various adjustment methods can be employed to correct these biases in the context of multi-level treatments ($>$ 2).…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-04 Diop S. Arona , Duchesne Thierry , Cumming Steven , Diop Awa , Talbot Denis