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Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often include subgroup analyses to assess whether treatment effects vary across pre-specified patient populations. However, these analyses frequently suffer from small sample sizes which limit the power…

How to estimate heterogeneity, e.g. the effect of some variable differing across observations, is a key question in political science. Methods for doing so make simplifying assumptions about the underlying nature of the heterogeneity to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-31 Max Goplerud

A commonly observed pattern in machine learning models is an underprediction of the target feature, with the model's predicted target rate for members of a given category typically being lower than the actual target rate for members of that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Owen O'Neill , Fintan Costello

The choice of sample size in the context of co-primary endpoints for a randomised trial is discussed. Current guidance can leave endpoints with unequal marginal power. A method is provided to achieve equal marginal power by using the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-23 Simon Bond

Clustering can be defined as the process of assembling objects into a number of groups whose elements are similar to each other in some manner. As a technique that is used in many domains, such as face clustering, plant categorization,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-05 Mehmet F. Demirel , Enrico Au-Yeung

We investigate the estimation of subgroup treatment effects with observational data. Existing propensity score matching and weighting methods are mostly developed for estimating overall treatment effect. Although the true propensity score…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-20 Jing Dong , Junni L Zhang , Fan Li

Composite binary endpoints are increasingly used as primary endpoints in clinical trials. When designing a trial, it is crucial to determine the appropriate sample size for testing the statistical differences between treatment groups for…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-15 Marta Bofill Roig , Guadalupe Gómez Melis

We introduce a new Stata package called summclust that summarizes the cluster structure of the dataset for linear regression models with clustered disturbances. The key unit of observation for such a model is the cluster. We therefore…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-27 James G. MacKinnon , Morten Ørregaard Nielsen , Matthew D. Webb

Probabilities of causation (PoCs), such as the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), are important tools for decision making but are generally not point identifiable. Existing work has derived bounds for these quantities using…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Tianyuan Cheng , Ruirui Mao , Judea Pearl , Ang Li

Clinical prediction models must be developed using sufficiently large datasets to minimise overfitting and ensure robust predictive performance. Existing sample size calculations assume complete predictor data for all included participants,…

Simulation studies are computer experiments that involve creating data by pseudorandom sampling. The key strength of simulation studies is the ability to understand the behaviour of statistical methods because some 'truth' (usually some…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-18 Tim P Morris , Ian R White , Michael J Crowther

We introduce a novel statistical significance-based approach for clustering hierarchical data using semi-parametric linear mixed-effects models designed for responses with laws in the exponential family (e.g., Poisson and Bernoulli). Within…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Alessandra Ragni , Chiara Masci , Francesca Ieva , Anna Maria Paganoni

Segmented regression is a standard statistical procedure used to estimate the effect of a policy intervention on time series outcomes. This statistical method assumes the normality of the outcome variable, a large sample size, no…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-18 Mohammad M. Islam , Ph. D. , Erik L. Heiny , Ph. D

There is a growing literature on design-based methods to estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for full sample analyses. This article extends these methods to estimate ATEs for discrete subgroups…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-16 Peter Z. Schochet

In cancer research, leveraging patient-derived xenografts (PDXs) in pre-clinical experiments is a crucial approach for assessing innovative therapeutic strategies. Addressing the inherent variability in treatment response among and within…

In a clustered observational study, a treatment is assigned to groups and all units within the group are exposed to the treatment. We develop a new method for statistical adjustment in clustered observational studies using approximate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-06 Luke Keele , Eli Ben-Michael , Lindsay Page

In this paper, we develop an exact method for the determination of the minimum sample size for estimating the proportion of a finite population with prescribed margin of error and confidence level. By characterizing the behavior of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-03 Xinjia Chen

Accurate power and sample size (PSS) calculations are essential for designing studies that use quasi-likelihood (QL) models, which extend generalized linear models (GLMs) to settings where the full distribution of the outcome is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Shijie Yuan , Amy Cochran , Paul Rathouz

Probabilistic clustering models (or equivalently, mixture models) are basic building blocks in countless statistical models and involve latent random variables over discrete spaces. For these models, posterior inference methods can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-24 Ari Pakman , Yueqi Wang , Catalin Mitelut , JinHyung Lee , Liam Paninski

To design Bayesian studies, criteria for the operating characteristics of posterior analyses - such as power and the type I error rate - are often assessed by estimating sampling distributions of posterior probabilities via simulation. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-17 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens