Related papers: Forest fire spreading: a nonlinear stochastic mode…
In 2023, Sicily faced an escalating issue of uncontrolled fires, necessitating a thorough investigation into their spatio-temporal dynamics. Our study addresses this concern through point process theory. Each wildfire is treated as a unique…
We introduce a simple mathematical model for bushfires accounting for temperature diffusion in the presence of a combustion term which is activated above a given ignition state. The model also takes into consideration the effect of the…
The nonlocal Fisher equation is a diffusion-reaction equation with a nonlocal quadratic competition, which describes the reaction between distant individuals. This equation arises in evolutionary biological systems, where the arena for the…
In this article a stochastic cellular automata model is examined, which has been developed to study a "small" world, where local changes may noticeably alter global characteristics. This is applied to a climate model, where global…
The Distributional Random Forest (DRF) is a recently introduced Random Forest algorithm to estimate multivariate conditional distributions. Due to its general estimation procedure, it can be employed to estimate a wide range of targets such…
Uncertainty propagation in non-linear dynamical systems has become a key problem in various fields including control theory and machine learning. In this work we focus on discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems. We present a…
We make the first steps towards generalizing the theory of stochastic block models, in the sparse regime, towards a model where the discrete community structure is replaced by an underlying geometry. We consider a geometric random graph…
We investigate the growth of clusters within the forest fire model of R\'{a}th and T\'{o}th [22]. The model is a continuous-time Markov process, similar to the dynamical Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but with the addition of so-called…
Diffusion processes in networks are increasingly used to model the spread of information and social influence. In several applications in computational sustainability such as the spread of wildlife, infectious diseases and traffic mobility…
The increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires underscore the need for accurate predictive models to enhance wildfire management. Traditional models, such as Rothermel and FARSITE, provide foundational insights but often oversimplify…
Animals typically forage in groups. Social foraging can help animals avoid predation and decrease their uncertainty about the richness of food resources. Despite this, theoretical mechanistic models of patch foraging have overwhelmingly…
The spread of infectious disease in a human community or the proliferation of fake news on social media can be modeled as a randomly growing tree-shaped graph. The history of the random growth process is often unobserved but contains…
Standard supervised learning procedures are validated against a test set that is assumed to have come from the same distribution as the training data. However, in many problems, the test data may have come from a different distribution. We…
Due to severe societal and environmental impacts, wildfire prediction using multi-modal sensing data has become a highly sought-after data-analytical tool by various stakeholders (such as state governments and power utility companies) to…
The proposed stochastic model for pedestrian dynamics is based on existing approaches using cellular automata, combined with substantial extensions, to compensate the deficiencies resulting of the discrete grid structure. This agent motion…
We introduce a stochastic agent-based model for the flocking dynamics of self-propelled particles that exhibit velocity-alignment interactions with neighbours within their field of view. The stochasticity in the dynamics of the model arises…
Increasingly larger data sets of processes in space and time ask for statistical models and methods that can cope with such data. We show that the solution of a stochastic advection-diffusion partial differential equation provides a…
Many forest management planning decisions are based on information about the number of trees by species and diameter per unit area. This information is commonly summarized in a stand table, where a stand is defined as a group of forest…
We study a stochastic epidemic model consisting of elements (organisms in a community or cells in tissue) with fixed positions, in which damage or disease is transmitted by diffusing agents ("signals") emitted by infected individuals. The…
Dynamic trees are mixtures of tree structured belief networks. They solve some of the problems of fixed tree networks at the cost of making exact inference intractable. For this reason approximate methods such as sampling or mean field…