Related papers: Forest fire spreading: a nonlinear stochastic mode…
We propose a Bayesian stochastic cellular automata modeling approach to model the spread of wildfires with uncertainty quantification. The model considers a dynamic neighborhood structure that allows neighbor states to inform transition…
This paper presents the development of a new continuous forest fire model implemented as a weighted local small-world network approach. This new approach was designed to simulate fire patterns in real, heterogeneous landscapes. The wildland…
This study presents a probabilistic surrogate model for localized wildfire spread based on a conditional flow matching algorithm. The approach models fire progression as a stochastic process by learning the conditional distribution of fire…
Forest fires pose a natural threat with devastating social, environmental, and economic implications. The rapid and highly uncertain rate of spread of wildfires necessitates a trustworthy digital tool capable of providing real-time…
We study the long-time dynamics of a forest-fire model with deterministic tree growth and instantaneous burning of entire forests by stochastic lightning strikes. Asymptotically the system organizes into a coarsening self-similar mosaic of…
Dynamic mean field theory is applied to the problem of forest fires. The starting point is the Monte Carlo simulation in a lattice of million cells. The statistics of the clusters is obtained by means of the Hoshen--Kopelman algorithm. We…
Tree-grass coexistence in savanna ecosystems depends strongly on environmental disturbances out of which crucial is fire. Most modeling attempts in the literature lack stochastic approach to fire occurrences which is essential to reflect…
Amongst the numerous models introduced with SOC, the Forest Fire Model (FFM) is particularly attractive for its close relationship to stochastic spreading, which is central to the study of systems as diverse as epidemics, rumours, or…
A cellular automaton (CA)-based modeling approach to simulate wildfire spread, emphasizing its strengths in capturing complex fire dynamics and its integration with geographic information systems (GIS). The model introduces an enhanced…
Wildfire propagation is a highly stochastic process where small changes in environmental conditions (such as wind speed and direction) can lead to large changes in observed behaviour. A traditional approach to quantify uncertainty in…
The objective of the present study is twofold. First, the last developments and validation results of a hybrid model designed to simulate fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes are presented. The model combines the features of a…
We present a general stochastic forest-fire model which shows a variety of different structures depending on the parameter values. The model contains three possible states per site (tree, burning tree, empty site) and three parameters (tree…
Stochastic diffusion is the noisy and uncertain process through which dynamics like epidemics, or agents like animal species, disperse over a larger area. Understanding these processes is becoming increasingly important as we attempt to…
Wildfire is an important system process of the earth that occurs across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. A variety of methods have been used to predict wildfire phenomena during the past century to better our understanding of…
We present results on a stochastic forest fire model, where the influence of the neighbour trees is treated in a more realistic way than usual and the definition of neighbourhood can be tuned by an additional parameter. This model exhibits…
The role of forest heterogeneity in the long-term, large-scale dynamics of forest fires is investigated by means of a cellular automata model and mean field approximation. Heterogeneity was conceived as trees (or acres of forest) with…
Forest transitions, characterized by dynamic shifts between forest, agricultural, and abandoned lands, are complex phenomena. This study developed a stochastic differential equation model to capture the intricate dynamics of these…
Models for wildfires must be stochastic if their ability to represent wildfires is to be objectively assessed. The need for models to be stochastic emerges naturally from the physics of the fire, and methods for assessing fit are…
Cell2Fire is a new cell-based forest and wildland landscape fire growth simulator that is open-source and exploits parallelism to support the modelling of fire growth cross large spatial and temporal scales in a timely manner. The fire…
Forecasting bushfire spread is an important element in fire prevention and response efforts. Empirical observations of bushfire spread can be used to estimate fire response under certain conditions. These observations form rate-of-spread…