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Decision trees are flexible models that are well suited for many statistical regression problems. In a Bayesian framework for regression trees, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search algorithms are required to generate samples of tree…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Reza Mohammadi , Matthew Pratola , Maurits Kaptein

Binary trait data record the presence or absence of distinguishing traits in individuals. We treat the problem of estimating ancestral trees with time depth from binary trait data. Simple analysis of such data is problematic. Each homology…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-08-31 Geoff K. Nicholls , Russell D. Gray

Recent work has proven the existence of extreme inbreeding in a European ancestry sample taken from the contemporary UK population \cite{nature_01}. This result brings our attention again to a math problem related to inbreeding family trees…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-08 C. Jarne , F A. Gómez Albarracín , M. Caruso

Bayesian Decision Trees are known for their probabilistic interpretability. However, their construction can sometimes be costly. In this article we present a general Bayesian Decision Tree algorithm applicable to both regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-23 Giuseppe Nuti , Lluís Antoni Jiménez Rugama , Andreea-Ingrid Cross

Inferring concerted changes among biological traits along an evolutionary history remains an important yet challenging problem. Besides adjusting for spurious correlation induced from the shared history, the task also requires sufficient…

Bayesian inference is now a leading technique for reconstructing phylogenetic trees from aligned sequence data. In this short note, we formally show that the maximum posterior tree topology provides a statistically consistent estimate of a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-07-12 Mike Steel

We present VBPI-Mixtures, an algorithm designed to enhance the accuracy of phylogenetic posterior distributions, particularly for tree-topology and branch-length approximations. Despite the Variational Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-03 Oskar Kviman , Ricky Molén , Jens Lagergren

As researchers collect increasingly large molecular data sets to reconstruct the Tree of Life, the heterogeneity of signals in the genomes of diverse organisms poses challenges for traditional phylogenetic analysis. A class of phylogenetic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-09-11 Liang Liu , Zhenxiang Xi , Shaoyuan Wu , Charles Davis , Scott V. Edwards

Bayesian inference methods rely on numerical algorithms for both model selection and parameter inference. In general, these algorithms require a high computational effort to yield reliable estimates. One of the major challenges in…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-08-09 Patricio Maturana , Brendon J. Brewer , Steffen Klaere , Remco Bouckaert

Bayesian inference for phylogenetics is a gold standard for computing distributions of phylogenies. It faces the challenging problem of. moving throughout the high-dimensional space of trees. However, hyperbolic space offers a low…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-19 Matthew Macaulay , Aaron E. Darling , Mathieu Fourment

We derive tractable criteria for the consistency of Bayesian tree reconstruction procedures, which constitute a central class of algorithms for inferring common ancestry among DNA sequence samples in phylogenetics. Our results encompass…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-05 Alisa Kirichenko , Luke J. Kelly , Jere Koskela

Traditionally, phylogeny and sequence alignment are estimated separately: first estimate a multiple sequence alignment and then infer a phylogeny based on the sequence alignment estimated in the previous step. However, uncertainty in the…

Applications · Statistics 2014-11-25 Heejung Shim , Bret Larget

This thesis develops and expands upon known techniques of mathematical physics relevant to the analysis of the popular Markov model of phylogenetic trees required in biology to reconstruct the evolutionary relationships of taxonomic units…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2007-10-18 J G Sumner

A phylogenetic tree is an important way in Bioinformatics to find the evolutionary relationship among biological species. In this research, a proposed model is described for the estimation of a phylogenetic tree for a given set of data. To…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-03 S M Rafiuddin

In this paper we present a new way to understand the timing of branching events in phylogenetic trees. Our method explicitly considers the relative timing of diversification events between sister clades; as such it is complimentary to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2008-03-12 Daniel Ford , Tanja Gernhard , Frederick Matsen

Approximate Bayesian computation methods can be used to evaluate posterior distributions without having to calculate likelihoods. In this paper we discuss and apply an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on sequential Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2009-01-15 Tina Toni , David Welch , Natalja Strelkowa , Andreas Ipsen , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Multiple Classifier Systems (MCSs) allow evaluation of the uncertainty of classification outcomes that is of crucial importance for safety critical applications. The uncertainty of classification is determined by a trade-off between the…

Understanding the emergence of biodiversity patterns in nature is a central problem in biology. Theoretical models of speciation have addressed this question in the macroecological scale, but little has been investigated in the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-10-09 Carolina L. N. Costa , Flavia M. D. Marquitti , S. Ivan Perez , David M. Schneider , Marlon F. Ramos , Marcus A. M. de Aguiar

The algebraic properties of flattenings and subflattenings provide direct methods for identifying edges in the true phylogeny -- and by extension the complete tree -- using pattern counts from a sequence alignment. The relatively small…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-06 Joshua Stevenson , Barbara Holland , Michael Charleston , Jeremy Sumner

CRISPR technology has enabled large-scale cell lineage tracing for complex multicellular organisms by mutating synthetic genomic barcodes during organismal development. However, these sophisticated biological tools currently use ad-hoc and…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-04-02 Jean Feng , William S DeWitt , Aaron McKenna , Noah Simon , Amy Willis , Frederick A Matsen