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Scientific researchers utilize randomized experiments to draw casual statements. Most early studies as well as current work on experiments with sequential intervention decisions has been focusing on estimating the causal effects among…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-27 Jingying Zeng

This paper discusses the different contemporaneous causal interpretations of Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVAR). I show that the interpretation of PVARs depends on the distribution of the causing variable, and can range from average…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-28 Raimondo Pala

We consider design-based causal inference for spatial experiments in which treatments may have effects that bleed out and feed back in complex ways. Such spatial spillover effects violate the standard ``no interference'' assumption for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-06 Ye Wang , Cyrus Samii , Haoge Chang , P. M. Aronow

In experiments that study social phenomena, such as peer influence or herd immunity, the treatment of one unit may influence the outcomes of others. Such "interference between units" violates traditional approaches for causal inference, so…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-30 David Choi

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Mohsen Bayati , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Sadegh Shirani , Ruoxuan Xiong

Treatment noncompliance is pervasive in infectious disease cluster-randomized trials. Although all individuals within a cluster are assigned the same treatment condition, the treatment uptake status may vary across individuals due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-19 Chao Cheng , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Fan Li

In network settings, interference between units makes causal inference more challenging as outcomes may depend on the treatments received by others in the network. Typical estimands in network settings focus on treatment effects aggregated…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Heejong Bong , Colin B. Fogarty , Elizaveta Levina , Ji Zhu

Adaptive experimentation under unknown network interference requires solving two coupled problems: (i) learning the underlying dynamics of interference among units and (ii) using these dynamics to inform treatment allocation in order to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Aidan Gleich , Eric Laber , Alexander Volfovsky

Estimating the total treatment effect (TTE) of a new feature in social platforms is crucial for understanding its impact on user behavior. However, the presence of network interference, which arises from user interactions, often complicates…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-09 Yiming Jiang , Lu Deng , Yong Wang , He Wang

We show that causal effects can be identified when there is bunching in the distribution of a continuous treatment variable, without imposing any parametric assumptions. This yields a new nonparametric method for overcoming selection bias…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-08 Carolina Caetano , Gregorio Caetano , Leonard Goff , Eric Nielsen

Previous work on causal inference has primarily focused on averages and conditional averages of treatment effects, with significantly less attention on variability and uncertainty in individual treatment responses. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Liyuan Xu , Bijan Mazaheri

Suppose an online platform wants to compare a treatment and control policy, e.g., two different matching algorithms in a ridesharing system, or two different inventory management algorithms in an online retail site. Standard randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-27 Peter Glynn , Ramesh Johari , Mohammad Rasouli

Two-sided marketplace platforms often run experiments to test the effect of an intervention before launching it platform-wide. A typical approach is to randomize individuals into the treatment group, which receives the intervention, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-27 Hannah Li , Geng Zhao , Ramesh Johari , Gabriel Y. Weintraub

We give an approach for characterizing interference by lower bounding the number of units whose outcome depends on selected groups of treated individuals, such as depending on the treatment of others, or others who are at least a certain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 David Choi

Educational research often studies subjects that are in naturally clustered groups of classrooms or schools. When designing a randomized experiment to evaluate an intervention directed at teachers, but with effects on teachers and their…

Applications · Statistics 2009-08-17 Brenda Jenney , Sharon Lohr

We extend the continuity-based framework to Regression Discontinuity Designs (RDDs) to identify and estimate causal effects under interference when units are connected through a network. Assignment to an "effective treatment," combining the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Elena Dal Torrione , Tiziano Arduini , Laura Forastiere

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation. When such a temporal dimension is present, treatment influences not only the outcome value but also the outcome timing, which can move in opposite directions. Motivated by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-30 Michael Lindon , Nathan Kallus

Existing feature filters rely on statistical pair-wise dependence metrics to model feature-target relationships, but this approach may fail when the target depends on higher-order feature interactions rather than individual contributions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Taurai Muvunza , Egor Kraev , Pere Planell-Morell , Alexander Y. Shestopaloff

Online experiments in ads, recommendation, and member-experience systems are often planned before the dominant interference mechanism is known. A treatment may propagate through budgets, inventory, producer exposure, graph spillovers, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Prashant Shekhar , Caroline Howard

We propose a model of treatment interference where the response of a unit depends only on its treatment status and the statuses of units within its K-neighborhood. Current methods for detecting interference include carefully designed…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Samirah H. Alzubaidi , Michael J. Higgins