Related papers: Variations on the two-child problem
Initially proposed by Martin Gardner in the 1950s, the famous two-children problem is often presented as a paradox in probability theory. A relatively recent variant of this paradox states that, while in a two-children family for which at…
The title of the article is identical to the title of Chapter 21 in Gardner (2001): because we are going to analyze the probability calculations and the ambiguity of the problem statements. We will analyze 3 out of 4 problems from Gardner…
We introduce a fun problem that can be considered as a variant of the classic birthday problem, the Bottleneck Birthday Problem (BBP). It is stated as: what is the maximum number of people we have to choose so that no day of the year has…
Take a look around you -- in your family, your school or workplace, in the streets, and you see boys & girls in about equal proportion, and without any easily visible gender patterns in case of siblings. So, to the famous first order of…
When Martin Gardner first presented the Two-Children problem, he made a mistake in its solution. Later he corrected the mistake in another publication, but unfortunately his incorrect solution is more widely known than his correction. In…
"No two rainbows are the same. Neither are two packs of Skittles. Enjoy an odd mix!". Using an interpretation via spatial random walks, we quantify the probability that two randomly selected packs of Skittles candy are identical and…
There are many papers written on the Two Envelopes Problem that usually study some of its variations. In this paper we will study and compare the most significant variations of the problem. We will see the correct decisions for each player…
The occurrence of Simpson's paradox (SP) in $2\times 2$ contingency tables has been well studied. The present work comprehensively revisits this problem using a combination of philosophical reflections, causal considerations, and…
The Monty Hall puzzle has been solved and dissected in many ways, but always using probabilistic arguments, so it is considered a probability puzzle. In this paper the puzzle is set up as an orthodox statistical problem involving an unknown…
Consider the following game: You are given two indistinguishable envelopes, each containing money. One contains twice as much as the other. You may pick one envelope and keep the money it contains. Having chosen an envelope, you are given…
The birthday paradox states that there is at least a 50% chance that some two out of twenty-three randomly chosen people will share the same birth date. The calculation for this problem assumes that all birth dates are equally likely. We…
The purpose of this note is to raise two different questions, which are rarely if ever considered, and to which, it seems, we lack convincing, systematic answers. These questions can be posed as: - Why do we compute? - What do we compute?…
A quite old problem has been recently revitalized by Leonard Mlodinow's book The Drunkard's Walk, where it is presented in a way that has definitely confused several people, that wonder why the prevalence of the name of one daughter among…
We conduct an incentivized experiment on a nationally representative US sample \\ (N=708) to test whether people prefer to avoid ambiguity even when it means choosing dominated options. In contrast to the literature, we find that 55\% of…
Recent empirical work has shown that human children are adept at learning and reasoning with probabilities. Here, we model a recent experiment investigating the development of school-age children's non-symbolic probability reasoning ability…
Recently, the educational initiative TED-Ed has published a popular brain teaser coined the 'frog riddle', which illustrates non-intuitive implications of conditional probabilities. In its intended form, the frog riddle is a reformulation…
The two envelopes paradox is discussed. By calculating the conditional probability, we arrive at a conditional expectations which differs from existing results.
The Frankl conjecture, also known as the union-closed sets conjecture, states that in any finite non-empty union-closed family, there exists an element in at least half of the sets. From an optimization point of view, one could instead…
The primary objective of this note is to revisit the two envelope problem and propose a simple resolution. It is argued that the paradox arises from the ambiguity associated with the money content $x of the chosen envelope. When X=x is…
Hamilton's method (also called method of largest remainder) is a natural and common method to distribute seats proportionally between states (or parties) in a parliament. In USA it has been abandoned due to some drawbacks, in particular the…