Related papers: Sequential Bayesian Predictive Synthesis
We develop a new class of dynamic multivariate Poisson count models that allow for fast online updating and we refer to these models as multivariate Poisson-scaled beta (MPSB). The MPSB model allows for serial dependence in the counts as…
This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…
In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…
Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…
Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…
Proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a novel construct that lies at the intersection of Bayesian computation and convex optimization, which helped popularize the use of nondifferentiable priors in Bayesian statistics. Existing formulations…
Synthetic likelihood (SL) is a strategy for parameter inference when the likelihood function is analytically or computationally intractable. In SL, the likelihood function of the data is replaced by a multivariate Gaussian density over…
Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…
We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…
We show how to speed up Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for Bayesian inference in large data problems by data subsampling. SMC sequentially updates a cloud of particles through a sequence of distributions, beginning with a distribution that is…
Monte Carlo algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), are routinely used for Bayesian inference in generalized linear models; however, these algorithms are prohibitively slow in massive data…
Model comparison for the purposes of selection, averaging and validation is a problem found throughout statistics. Within the Bayesian paradigm, these problems all require the calculation of the posterior probabilities of models within a…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) using a sequential Monte Carlo method provides a comprehensive platform for parameter estimation, model selection and sensitivity analysis in differential equations. However, this method, like other…
This article introduces a novel dynamic framework to Bayesian model averaging for time-varying parameter quantile regressions. By employing sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo, we combine empirical estimates derived from dynamically chosen…
Understanding how stochastic gene expression is regulated in biological systems using snapshots of single-cell transcripts requires state-of-the-art methods of computational analysis and statistical inference. A Bayesian approach to…
Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving posterior…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…
We propose a very fast approximate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework that is applicable to a large class of sparse Bayesian inference problems, where the computational cost per iteration in several models is of order…
We present new Bayesian methodology for consumer sales forecasting. With a focus on multi-step ahead forecasting of daily sales of many supermarket items, we adapt dynamic count mixture models to forecast individual customer transactions,…
Factor analysis is a flexible technique for assessment of multivariate dependence and codependence. Besides being an exploratory tool used to reduce the dimensionality of multivariate data, it allows estimation of common factors that often…