Related papers: Parametric quantile autoregressive conditional dur…
This thesis presents the Conditional Value-at-Risk concept and combines an analysis that covers its application as a risk measure and as a vector norm. For both areas of application the theory is revised in detail and examples are given to…
Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…
Count time series data are frequently analyzed by modeling their conditional means and the conditional variance is often considered to be a deterministic function of the corresponding conditional mean and is not typically modeled…
The mean-variance portfolio model, based on the risk-return trade-off for optimal asset allocation, remains foundational in portfolio optimization. However, its reliance on restrictive assumptions about asset return distributions limits its…
In this paper, we propose two important measures, quantile correlation (QCOR) and quantile partial correlation (QPCOR). We then apply them to quantile autoregressive (QAR) models, and introduce two valuable quantities, the quantile…
A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian…
The increasing value of data held in enterprises makes it an attractive target to attackers. The increasing likelihood and impact of a cyber attack have highlighted the importance of effective cyber risk estimation. We propose two methods…
It is generally accepted that many time series of practical interest exhibit strong dependence, i.e., long memory. For such series, the sample autocorrelations decay slowly and log-log periodogram plots indicate a straight-line…
This paper investigates new ways of estimating and identifying causal, noncausal, and mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models driven by a non-Gaussian error sequence. We do not assume any parametric distribution function for the…
Periodic autoregressive (PAR) time series with finite variance is considered as one of the most common models of second-order cyclostationary processes. However, in the real applications, the signals with periodic characteristics may be…
Range-measured return contains more information than the traditional scalar-valued return. In this paper, we propose to model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and suggest an interval-valued GARCH (Int-GARCH) model for the…
Based on law of large numbers and central limit theorem under nonlinear expectation, we introduce a new method of using G-normal distribution to measure financial risks. Applying max-mean estimators and small windows method, we establish…
In spatio-temporal analysis, we often record data at specific time intervals but with varying spatial locations between these timepoints. We propose a conditional model to analyze such spatio-temporal data that accommodates the dependencies…
Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is a data based modeling tool that identifies a matrix to map a quantity at some time instant to the same quantity in future. We design a new version which we call Adaptive Dynamic Mode Decomposition (ADMD)…
Dynamic quantiles, or Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) models, have been extensively studied at the individual level. However, efforts to estimate multiple dynamic quantiles jointly have been limited. Existing approaches…
Spatial autoregressive model, introduced by Clif and Ord in 1970s has been widely applied in many areas of science and econometrics such as regional economics, public finance, political sciences, agricultural economics, environmental…
We introduce an equilibrium asset pricing model, which we build on the relationship between a novel risk measure, the Expected Downside Risk (EDR) and the expected return. On the one hand, our proposed risk measure uses a nonparametric…
Model averaging has demonstrated superior performance for ensemble forecasting in high-dimensional framework, its extension to incomplete datasets remains a critical but underexplored challenge. Moreover, identifying the parsimonious model…
Recent theoretical results establish that time-consistent valuations (i.e. pricing operators) can be created by backward iteration of one-period valuations. In this paper we investigate the continuous-time limits of well-known actuarial…