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In order to anticipate rare and impactful events, we propose to quantify the worst-case risk under distributional ambiguity using a recent development in kernel methods -- the kernel mean embedding. Specifically, we formulate the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Jia-Jie Zhu , Wittawat Jitkrittum , Moritz Diehl , Bernhard Schölkopf

A semi-parametric, non-linear regression model in the presence of latent variables is introduced. These latent variables can correspond to unmodeled phenomena or unmeasured agents in a complex networked system. This new formulation allows…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-29 Jonathan Mei , José M. F. Moura

Predicting future operational risk losses gives rise to a significant challenge due to the heterogeneous and time-dependent structures present in real-world data. Furthermore, stress test exercises require examining the relationship with…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-24 Nikeethan Selvaratnam , Dorinel Bastide , Clément Fernandes , Wojciech Pieczynski

We propose a method for nonparametric density estimation that exhibits robustness to contamination of the training sample. This method achieves robustness by combining a traditional kernel density estimator (KDE) with ideas from classical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-09-07 JooSeuk Kim , Clayton D. Scott

We propose a method for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates in a model with continuous and binary outcomes. Combinations of left and right censored observations are also naturally modeled in this framework. The model and estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-07 Klaus K. Holst , Esben Budtz-Jørgensen , Gitte Moos Knudsen

This paper considers a proportional hazards model, which allows one to examine the extent to which covariates interact nonlinearly with an exposure variable, for analysis of lifetime data. A local partial-likelihood technique is proposed to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Jianqing Fan , Huazhen Lin , Yong Zhou

We extend the well-known $\beta$-model for directed graphs to dynamic network setting, where we observe snapshots of adjacency matrices at different time points. We propose a kernel-smoothed likelihood approach for estimating $2n$…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-22 Yuqing Du , Lianqiang Qu , Ting Yan , Yuan Zhang

The R package CVEK introduces a suite of flexible machine learning models and robust hypothesis tests for learning the joint nonlinear effects of multiple covariates in limited samples. It implements the Cross-validated Ensemble of Kernels…

Computation · Statistics 2020-12-22 Wenying Deng , Jeremiah Zhe Liu , Erin Lake , Brent A. Coull

Modern bio-technologies have produced a vast amount of high-throughput data with the number of predictors far greater than the sample size. In order to identify more novel biomarkers and understand biological mechanisms, it is vital to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-18 Kevin He , Jian Kang , Hyokyoung Grace Hong , Ji Zhu , Yanming Li , Huazhen Lin , Han Xu , Yi Li

Many scientific problems require identifying a small set of covariates that are associated with a target response and estimating their effects. Often, these effects are nonlinear and include interactions, so linear and additive methods can…

Computation · Statistics 2022-12-02 Raj Agrawal , Tamara Broderick

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

In this paper the regression discontinuity design is adapted to the survival analysis setting with right-censored data, studied in an intensity based counting process framework. In particular, a local polynomial regression version of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-07 Emil Aas Stoltenberg

Motivated by multi-center biomedical studies that cannot share individual data due to privacy and ownership concerns, we develop communication-efficient iterative distributed algorithms for estimation and inference in the high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Pierre Bayle , Jianqing Fan , Zhipeng Lou

Multi-view problems can be faced with latent variable models since they are able to find low-dimensional projections that fairly capture the correlations among the multiple views that characterise each datum. On the other hand,…

When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Jason J. Lambe , Feng Chen , Tom Stindl , Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan

In this paper we describe an algorithm for predicting the websites at risk in a long range hacking activity, while jointly inferring the provenance and evolution of vulnerabilities on websites over continuous time. Specifically, we use…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-23 Ziqi Liu , Alexander J. Smola , Kyle Soska , Yu-Xiang Wang , Qinghua Zheng

In biometrics and related fields, the Cox proportional hazards model are widely used to analyze with covariate adjustment. However, when some covariates are not observed, an unbiased estimator usually cannot be obtained. Even if there are…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-06 Shunichiro Orihara

A hybrid estimator of the log-spectral density of a stationary time series is proposed. First, a multiple taper estimate is performed, followed by kernel smoothing the log-multitaper estimate. This procedure reduces the expected mean square…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-18 Alexander Sidorenko , Kurt S. Riedel

A popular Bayesian nonparametric approach to survival analysis consists in modeling hazard rates as kernel mixtures driven by a completely random measure. In this paper we derive asymptotic results for linear and quadratic functionals of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Giovanni Peccati , Igor Prünster

The penalized Cox proportional hazard model is a popular analytical approach for survival data with a large number of covariates. Such problems are especially challenging when covariates vary over follow-up time (i.e., the covariates are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-10 Steve Cygu , Jonathan Dushoff , Benjamin M. Bolker