Related papers: Stochastic Variational Inference for GARCH Models
We introduce a new interpretation of sparse variational approximations for Gaussian processes using inducing points, which can lead to more scalable algorithms than previous methods. It is based on decomposing a Gaussian process as a sum of…
We propose sequential Monte Carlo based algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the static parameters in hidden Markov models with an intractable likelihood using ideas from approximate Bayesian computation. The static parameter…
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) or stochastic approximation has been widely used in model training and stochastic optimization. While there is a huge literature on analyzing its convergence, inference on the obtained solutions from SGD…
We present and analyze several strategies for improving the performance of stochastic variance-reduced gradient (SVRG) methods. We first show that the convergence rate of these methods can be preserved under a decreasing sequence of errors…
Heteroscedastic regression models a Gaussian variable's mean and variance as a function of covariates. Parametric methods that employ neural networks for these parameter maps can capture complex relationships in the data. Yet, optimizing…
Gradient-based approximate inference methods, such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), provide simple and general-purpose inference engines for differentiable continuous distributions. However, existing forms of SVGD cannot be…
The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is applied for the Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We use the HMC algorithm for the Markov chain Monte Carlo updates of volatility variables of the SV model. First we…
Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells. These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not…
Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…
Recent work has established an empirically successful framework for adapting learning rates for stochastic gradient descent (SGD). This effectively removes all needs for tuning, while automatically reducing learning rates over time on…
Range-measured return contains more information than the traditional scalar-valued return. In this paper, we propose to model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and suggest an interval-valued GARCH (Int-GARCH) model for the…
The R package stochvol provides a fully Bayesian implementation of heteroskedasticity modeling within the framework of stochastic volatility. It utilizes Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers to conduct inference by obtaining draws from…
We study optimization algorithms based on variance reduction for stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Remarkable recent progress has been made in this direction through development of algorithms like SAG, SVRG, SAGA. These algorithms have…
The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially…
In this paper, we propose a stochastic optimization method that adaptively controls the sample size used in the computation of gradient approximations. Unlike other variance reduction techniques that either require additional storage or the…
Many particle-based Bayesian inference methods use a single global step size for all parts of the update. In Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), however, each update combines two qualitatively different effects: attraction toward…
Traditional preamble detection algorithms have low accuracy in the grant-based random access scheme in massive machine-type communication (mMTC). We present a novel preamble detection algorithm based on Stein variational gradient descent…
Stock market indices are volatile by nature, and sudden shocks are known to affect volatility patterns. The autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) models neglect structural breaks triggered by…
We present a new algorithm for stochastic variational inference that targets at models with non-differentiable densities. One of the key challenges in stochastic variational inference is to come up with a low-variance estimator of the…
Outstanding achievements of graph neural networks for spatiotemporal time series analysis show that relational constraints introduce an effective inductive bias into neural forecasting architectures. Often, however, the relational…