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Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

Existing methods for estimating uncertainty in deep learning tend to require multiple forward passes, making them unsuitable for applications where computational resources are limited. To solve this, we perform probabilistic reasoning over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-08 Javier Antorán , James Urquhart Allingham , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

We describe a method for verifying the output of a deep neural network for medical image segmentation that is robust to several classes of random as well as worst-case perturbations i.e. adversarial attacks. This method is based on a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-21 Fahim Ahmed Zaman , Xiaodong Wu , Weiyu Xu , Milan Sonka , Raghuraman Mudumbai

Deep neural network controllers for autonomous driving have recently benefited from significant performance improvements, and have begun deployment in the real world. Prior to their widespread adoption, safety guarantees are needed on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-24 Rhiannon Michelmore , Matthew Wicker , Luca Laurenti , Luca Cardelli , Yarin Gal , Marta Kwiatkowska

Uncertainty quantification for full-waveform inversion provides a probabilistic characterization of the ill-conditioning of the problem, comprising the sensitivity of the solution with respect to the starting model and data noise. This…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-04-20 Gabrio Rizzuti , Ali Siahkoohi , Philipp A. Witte , Felix J. Herrmann

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Vardhan Dongre , Gurpreet Singh Hora

A set of novel approaches for estimating epistemic uncertainty in deep neural networks with a single forward pass has recently emerged as a valid alternative to Bayesian Neural Networks. On the premise of informative representations, these…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Janis Postels , Mattia Segu , Tao Sun , Luca Sieber , Luc Van Gool , Fisher Yu , Federico Tombari

Automated medical image segmentation, specifically using deep learning, has shown outstanding performance in semantic segmentation tasks. However, these methods rarely quantify their uncertainty, which may lead to errors in downstream…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-06-25 Zach Eaton-Rosen , Felix Bragman , Sotirios Bisdas , Sebastien Ourselin , M. Jorge Cardoso

Semantic segmentation is a fundamental computer vision task with a vast number of applications. State of the art methods increasingly rely on deep learning models, known to incorrectly estimate uncertainty and being overconfident in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Luís Almeida , Inês Dutra , Francesco Renna

While modern deep neural networks are performant perception modules, performance (accuracy) alone is insufficient, particularly for safety-critical robotic applications such as self-driving vehicles. Robot autonomy stacks also require these…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Dhaivat Bhatt , Kaustubh Mani , Dishank Bansal , Krishna Murthy , Hanju Lee , Liam Paull

Modern deep learning tools are remarkably effective in addressing intricate problems. However, their operation as black-box models introduces increased uncertainty in predictions. Additionally, they contend with various challenges,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Sourav Ganguly , Saprativa Bhattacharjee

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

We develop a probabilistic machine learning method, which formulates a class of stochastic neural networks by a stochastic optimal control problem. An efficient stochastic gradient descent algorithm is introduced under the stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-06 Richard Archibald , Feng Bao , Yanzhao Cao , He Zhang

In image segmentation, there is often more than one plausible solution for a given input. In medical imaging, for example, experts will often disagree about the exact location of object boundaries. Estimating this inherent uncertainty and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-23 Miguel Monteiro , Loïc Le Folgoc , Daniel Coelho de Castro , Nick Pawlowski , Bernardo Marques , Konstantinos Kamnitsas , Mark van der Wilk , Ben Glocker

The non-convexity and intractability of distributionally robust chance constraints make them challenging to cope with. From a data-driven perspective, we propose formulating it as a robust optimization problem to ensure that the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-23 Zhiping Chen , Wentao Ma , Bingbing Ji

Accurate state and uncertainty estimation is imperative for mobile robots and self driving vehicles to achieve safe navigation in pedestrian rich environments. A critical component of state and uncertainty estimation for robot navigation is…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-04-08 Kapil D. Katyal , I-Jeng Wang , Gregory D. Hager

When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Uncertainty quantification, by means of confidence interval (CI) construction, has been a fundamental problem in statistics and also important in risk-aware decision-making. In this paper, we revisit the basic problem of CI construction,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-13 Shengyi He , Henry Lam

Precise estimation of uncertainty in predictions for AI systems is a critical factor in ensuring trust and safety. Deep neural networks trained with a conventional method are prone to over-confident predictions. In contrast to Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-05 Theodoros Tsiligkaridis