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Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Alexander Pritzel , Charles Blundell

Uncertainty-quantification methods are applied to estimate the confidence of deep-neural-networks classifiers over their predictions. However, most widely used methods are known to be overconfident. We address this problem by developing an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Luigi Sbailò , Luca M. Ghiringhelli

Despite the functional success of deep neural networks (DNNs), their trustworthiness remains a crucial open challenge. To address this challenge, both testing and verification techniques have been proposed. But these existing techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-24 Teodora Baluta , Zheng Leong Chua , Kuldeep S. Meel , Prateek Saxena

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

Neural networks (NNs) can achieved high performance in various fields such as computer vision, and natural language processing. However, deploying NNs in resource-constrained safety-critical systems has challenges due to uncertainty in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Soyed Tuhin Ahmed

Uncertainty quantification is an important and challenging problem in deep learning. Previous methods rely on dropout layers which are not present in modern deep architectures or batch normalization which is sensitive to batch sizes. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-10 Lukasz Wandzik , Raul Vicente Garcia , Jörg Krüger

Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Arthur Thuy , Dries F. Benoit

While improving prediction accuracy has been the focus of machine learning in recent years, this alone does not suffice for reliable decision-making. Deploying learning systems in consequential settings also requires calibrating and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-06 Stephen Bates , Anastasios Angelopoulos , Lihua Lei , Jitendra Malik , Michael I. Jordan

Active statistical inference is a new method for inference with AI-assisted data collection. Given a budget on the number of labeled data points that can be collected and assuming access to an AI predictive model, the basic idea is to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-13 Puheng Li , Tijana Zrnic , Emmanuel Candès

The concept of trustworthy AI has gained widespread attention lately. One of the aspects relevant to trustworthy AI is robustness of ML models. In this study, we show how to probabilistically quantify robustness against naturally occurring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Christoph Schweimer , Sebastian Scher

Semantic segmentation networks (SSNs) are central to safety-critical applications such as medical imaging and autonomous driving, where robustness under uncertainty is essential. However, existing probabilistic verification methods often…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Navid Hashemi , Samuel Sasaki , Diego Manzanas Lopez , Lars Lindemann , Ipek Oguz , Meiyi Ma , Taylor T. Johnson

We present a new approach to assessing the robustness of neural networks based on estimating the proportion of inputs for which a property is violated. Specifically, we estimate the probability of the event that the property is violated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-25 Stefan Webb , Tom Rainforth , Yee Whye Teh , M. Pawan Kumar

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Cheng Wang , Carolin Lawrence , Mathias Niepert

Statistical models are inherently uncertain. Quantifying or at least upper-bounding their uncertainties is vital for safety-critical systems such as autonomous vehicles. While standard neural networks do not report this information, several…

Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis is highly desired in many applications. Typically, machine learning models in classification or segmentation are only developed to provide binary answers; however, quantifying the…

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Assessing uncertainty is an important step towards ensuring the safety and reliability of machine learning systems. Existing uncertainty estimation techniques may fail when their modeling assumptions are not met, e.g. when the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-24 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

Deep neural networks have proven to be extremely powerful, however, they are also vulnerable to adversarial attacks which can cause hazardous incorrect predictions in safety-critical applications. Certified robustness via randomized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Sina Däubener , Kira Maag , David Krueger , Asja Fischer

Effective quantification of uncertainty is an essential and still missing step towards a greater adoption of deep-learning approaches in different applications, including mission-critical ones. In particular, investigations on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Marco Forgione , Dario Piga

Despite achieving excellent performance on benchmarks, deep neural networks often underperform in real-world deployment due to sensitivity to minor, often imperceptible shifts in input data, known as distributional shifts. These shifts are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Birk Torpmann-Hagen , Pål Halvorsen , Michael A. Riegler , Dag Johansen
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