Related papers: Ensemble-localized Kernel Density Estimation with …
This work introduces a novel probabilistic deep learning technique called deep Gaussian mixture ensembles (DGMEs), which enables accurate quantification of both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. By assuming the data generating process…
The proof of convergence of the standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) from Legland etal. (2011) is extended to non-Gaussian state space models. A density-based deterministic approximation of the mean-field limit EnKF (DMFEnKF) is proposed,…
Popular (ensemble) Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) approaches assume that the errors in both the a priori estimate of the state and those in the observations are Gaussian. For constrained variables, e.g. sea ice concentration or…
Kernel density estimation (KDE) is a popular statistical technique for estimating the underlying density distribution with minimal assumptions. Although they can be shown to achieve asymptotic estimation optimality for any input…
Ensembles of independently trained neural networks are a state-of-the-art approach to estimate predictive uncertainty in Deep Learning, and can be interpreted as an approximation of the posterior distribution via a mixture of delta…
Ensemble filters implement sequential Bayesian estimation by representing the probability distribution by an ensemble mean and covariance. Unbiased square root ensemble filters use deterministic algorithms to produce an analysis (posterior)…
In order to cluster or partition data, we often use Expectation-and-Maximization (EM) or Variational approximation with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which is a parametric probability density function represented as a weighted sum of…
Kernel density estimation (KDE) is one of the most widely used nonparametric density estimation methods. The fact that it is a memory-based method, i.e., it uses the entire training data set for prediction, makes it unsuitable for most…
An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF, the predictor) is used make a large change in the state, followed by a Particle Filer (PF, the corrector) which assigns importance weights to describe non-Gaussian distribution. The weights are obtained by…
Real-time nonlinear Bayesian filtering algorithms are overwhelmed by data volume, velocity and increasing complexity of computational models. In this paper, we propose a novel ensemble based nonlinear Bayesian filtering approach which only…
We propose an ensemble score filter (EnSF) for solving high-dimensional nonlinear filtering problems with superior accuracy. A major drawback of existing filtering methods, e.g., particle filters or ensemble Kalman filters, is the low…
This paper presents the machine learning-based ensemble conditional mean filter (ML-EnCMF) -- a filtering method based on the conditional mean filter (CMF) previously introduced in the literature. The updated mean of the CMF matches that of…
Multi-modal densities appear frequently in time series and practical applications. However, they cannot be represented by common state estimators, such as the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), which…
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a Monte Carlo approximation of the Kalman filter for high dimensional linear Gaussian state space models. EnKF methods have also been developed for parameter inference of static Bayesian models with a…
This paper develops efficient ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) implementations based on shrinkage covariance estimation. The forecast ensemble members at each step are used to estimate the background error covariance matrix via the…
A modification scheme to the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is introduced based on the concept of the unscented transform (Julier et al., 2000; Julier and Uhlmann, 2004), which therefore will be called the ensemble unscented Kalman filter…
We present a practical implementation of the ensemble Kalman (EnKF) filter based on an iterative Sherman-Morrison formula. The new direct method exploits the special structure of the ensemble-estimated error covariance matrices in order to…
Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an important data assimilation method for high dimensional geophysical systems. Efficient implementation of EnKF in practice often involves the localization technique, which updates each component using only…
Many applications, such as intermittent data assimilation, lead to a recursive application of Bayesian inference within a Monte Carlo context. Popular data assimilation algorithms include sequential Monte Carlo methods and ensemble Kalman…
This paper proposes a consensus-based distributed nonlinear filter with kernel mean embedding (KME). This fills with gap of posterior density approximation with KME for distributed nonlinear dynamic systems. To approximate the posterior…