Related papers: Break-Point Date Estimation for Nonstationary Auto…
This study proposes a point estimator of the break location for a one-time structural break in linear regression models. If the break magnitude is small, the least-squares estimator of the break date has two modes at the ends of the finite…
This paper considers M-estimation of a nonlinear regression model with multiple change-points occuring at unknown times. The multi-phase random design regression model, discontinuous in each change-point, have an arbitrary error $\epsilon$.…
Tests for structural breaks in time series should ideally be sensitive to breaks in the parameter of interest, while being robust to nuisance changes. Statistical analysis thus needs to allow for some form of nonstationarity under the null…
For a partial structural change in a linear regression model with a single break, we develop a continuous record asymptotic framework to build inference methods for the break date. We have T observations with a sampling frequency h over a…
In this paper, we propose a new test for the detection of a change in a non-linear (auto-)regressive time series as well as a corresponding estimator for the unknown time point of the change. To this end, we consider an at-most-one-change…
Predicting scalar outcomes using functional predictors is a classic problem in functional data analysis. In many applications, however, only specific locations or time-points of the functional predictors have an impact on the outcome. Such…
In this paper we consider a regression model that allows for time series covariates as well as heteroscedasticity with a regression function that is modelled nonparametrically. We assume that the regression function changes at some unknown…
We analyze the statistical properties of nonparametric regression estimators using covariates which are not directly observable, but have be estimated from data in a preliminary step. These so-called generated covariates appear in numerous…
The paper deals with the nonparametric estimation problem at a given fixed point for an autoregressive model with unknown distributed noise. Kernel estimate modifications are proposed. Asymptotic minimax and efficiency properties for…
We propose an econometric environment for structural break detection in nonstationary quantile predictive regressions. We establish the limit distributions for a class of Wald and fluctuation type statistics based on both the ordinary least…
Change point analysis has become an important research topic in many fields of applications. Several research work has been carried out to detect changes and its locations in time series data. In this paper, a nonparametric method based on…
We provide a unified approach to a method of estimation of the regression parameter in balanced linear models with a structured covariance matrix that combines a high breakdown point and bounded influence with high asymptotic efficiency at…
This article studies estimation of a stationary autocovariance structure in the presence of an unknown number of mean shifts. Here, a Yule-Walker moment estimator for the autoregressive parameters in a dependent time series contaminated by…
In a nonparametric instrumental regression model, we strengthen the conventional moment independence assumption towards full statistical independence between instrument and error term. This allows us to prove identification results and…
We discuss a class of difference-based estimators for the autocovariance in nonparametric regression when the signal is discontinuous (change-point regression), possibly highly fluctuating, and the errors form a stationary $m$-dependent…
This paper studies multivariate nonparametric change point localization and inference problems. The data consists of a multivariate time series with potentially short range dependence. The distribution of this data is assumed to be…
This paper examines the asymptotic inference for AR(1) models with a possible structural break in the AR parameter $\beta $ near the unity at an unknown time $k_{0}$. Consider the model $y_{t}=\beta_{1}y_{t-1}I\{t\leq k_{0}\}+\beta…
This Appendix (dated: July 2021) includes supplementary derivations related to the main limit results of the econometric framework for structural break testing in predictive regression models based on the OLS-Wald and IVX-Wald test…
Forecasting risk (as measured by quantiles) and systemic risk (as measured by Adrian and Brunnermeiers's (2016) CoVaR) is important in economics and finance. However, past research has shown that predictive relationships may be unstable…
A single joinpoint changepoint model partitions a time series into two segments, joined at the changepoint time by constraining the estimated piecewise linear regression responses to be continuous. This manuscript derives the exact…