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Related papers: The Sampling Method for Optimal Precursors of ENSO…

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The configuration of physical parameterization schemes in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models plays a critical role in determining the accuracy of the forecast. However, existing parameter calibration methods typically treat each…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Heping Fang , Bingdong Li , Peng Yang

This study addresses a critical challenge in AI-based weather forecasting by developing an AI-driven optimized ensemble forecast system using Orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations (O-CNOPs). The system bridges the gap…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-27 Yonghui Li , Wansuo Duan , Hao Li , Wei Han , Han Zhang , Yinuo Li

El Ni\~{n}o is a typical example of a coupled atmosphere--ocean phenomenon, but it is unclear whether it can be described quantitatively by a correlation between relevant climate events. To provide clarity on this issue, we developed a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-02-14 Nozomi Sugiura , Shinya Kouketsu

The computational equivalence between approximate counting and sampling is well established for polynomial-time algorithms. The most efficient general reduction from counting to sampling is achieved via simulated annealing, where the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-04-03 David G. Harris , Vladimir Kolmogorov , Hongyang Liu , Yitong Yin , Yiyao Zhang

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-10-10 John Guckenheimer , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra , Andrew Roberts

The El Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts profound influence on global climate variability, yet its prediction remains a grand challenge. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved forecasting skill, but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Yanhai Gan , Yipeng Chen , Ning Li , Xingguo Liu , Junyu Dong , Xianyao Chen

Satellite and ground-based observations are used to explore the composite oceanic - atmospheric link known as the El Ni\~no/La Ni\~na Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is closely associated with extreme weather events (e.g. heat…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-08-22 Costas A. Varotsos , Arthur P. Cracknell

We introduce an optimal strategy to sample quantum outcomes of local measurement strings for isometric tensor network states. Our method generates samples based on an exact cumulative bounding function, without prior knowledge, in the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-23 Marco Ballarin , Pietro Silvi , Simone Montangero , Daniel Jaschke

Forecasting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been a subject of vigorous research due to the important role of the phenomenon in climate dynamics and its worldwide socioeconomic impacts. Over the past decades, numerous models for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-12-12 Xinyang Wang , Joanna Slawinska , Dimitrios Giannakis

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of year-to-year variations of the global climate and can lead to extreme weather conditions and disasters in various regions around the world. Here, we review two different…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-26 J. Ludescher , J. Meng , J. Fan , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-18 Elena Provenzano , Guillaume Gastineau , Carlos Mejia , Didier Swingedouw , Sylvie Thiria

Predicting sea surface temperature (SST) within the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region has been extensively studied due to its significant influence on global temperature and precipitation patterns. Statistical models such as…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-06-21 Lingda Wang , Savana Ammons , Vera Mikyoung Hur , Ryan L. Sriver , Zhizhen Zhao

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscale stochastic model to show that the observed ENSO complexity can be…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-04-16 Nan Chen , Xianghui Fang , Jin-Yi Yu

Sampling-based model predictive control methods like MPPI and CEM are essential for real-time control of nonlinear robotic systems, particularly where discontinuous dynamics preclude gradient-based optimization. However, these methods…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Vincent Pacelli , Akash Ratheesh , Evangelos A. Theodorou

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial ocean/atmosphere Pacific. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-07-12 John Guckenheimer , Andrew Roberts , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra

Different to classical theories which emphasize east--west feedback along the equator, data analyses via the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method support a new viewpoint that the El Ni\~{n}o--Southern Oscillation (ENSO)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-12-05 Jin-Liang Wang

Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-02-02 Bernd Krauskopf , Jan Sieber

A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-27 Theodoros Economou , David B. Stephenson , Christopher A. T. Ferro

Understanding the interactions between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is essential to studying climate variabilities and predicting extreme weather events. Here, we develop a stochastic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-11 Charlotte Moser , Nan Chen , Yinling Zhang

The impact of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the extratropics is investigated in an idealized, reduced-order model that has a tropical and an extratropical module. Unidirectional ENSO forcing is used to mimick the atmospheric…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-07-07 Stéphane Vannitsem , Jonathan Demaeyer , Michael Ghil