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We study the problem of minimizing the discounted probability of exponential Parisian ruin, that is, the discounted probability that an insurer's surplus exhibits an excursion below zero in excess of an exponentially distributed clock. The…
The aim of this paper is to construct the confidence interval of the ultimate ruin probability under the insurance surplus driven by a L\'evy process. Assuming a parametric family for the L\'evy measures, we estimate the parameter from the…
Bankruptcy is a legal procedure that claims a person or organization as a debtor. It is essential to ascertain the risk of bankruptcy at initial stages to prevent financial losses. In this perspective, different soft computing techniques…
We consider Monte Carlo approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants. This paper deals with adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms, which adjust control parameters in the course of simulation. We…
An importance sampling approach for sampling copula models is introduced. We propose two algorithms that improve Monte Carlo estimators when the functional of interest depends mainly on the behaviour of the underlying random vector when at…
In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In…
Importance sampling is a common technique for Monte Carlo approximation, including Monte Carlo approximation of p-values. Here it is shown that a simple correction of the usual importance sampling p-values creates valid p-values, meaning…
The classical Cramer-Lundberg model was the first attempt to describe the financial condition of the insurance company. The incomes were approximated by a steady stream of money, insurance payments were not limited and could take any value…
This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms…
In bankruptcy prediction, the proportion of events is very low, which is often oversampled to eliminate this bias. In this paper, we study the influence of the event rate on discrimination abilities of bankruptcy prediction models. First…
We study an optimal investment control problem for an insurance company. The surplus process follows the Cramer-Lundberg process with perturbation of a Brownian motion. The company can invest its surplus into a risk free asset and a…
The classical Cram\'er-Lundberg risk process models the ruin probability of an insurance company experiencing an incoming cash flow - the premium income, and an outgoing cash flow - the claims. From a system's viewpoint, the web of…
Importance sampling is a promising variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo simulation based derivative pricing. Existing importance sampling methods are based on a parametric choice of the proposal. This article proposes an algorithm…
This paper considers a Cram\'er-Lundberg risk setting, where the components of the underlying model change over time. These components could be thought of as the claim arrival rate, the claim-size distribution, and the premium rate, but we…
We investigate the asymptotic of ruin probabilities when the company combines the life- and non-life insurance businesses and invests its reserve into a risky asset with stochastic volatility and drift driven by a two-state Markov process.…
Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we…
In this paper we develop a symbolic technique to obtain asymptotic expressions for ruin probabilities and discounted penalty functions in renewal insurance risk models when the premium income depends on the present surplus of the insurance…
In the present paper, we investigate the optimal capital injection behaviour of an insurance company if the interest rate is allowed to become negative. The surplus process of the considered insurance entity is assumed to follow a Brownian…
Statistical model checking avoids the exponential growth of states associated with probabilistic model checking by estimating properties from multiple executions of a system and by giving results within confidence bounds. Rare properties…
We consider a bivariate Cramer-Lundberg-type risk reserve process with the special feature that each insurance company agrees to cover the deficit of the other. It is assumed that the capital transfers between the companies are…