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A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Victor Dheur , Souhaib Ben Taieb

Recent studies on the memorization effects of deep neural networks on noisy labels show that the networks first fit the correctly-labeled training samples before memorizing the mislabeled samples. Motivated by this early-learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-07 Yangdi Lu , Yang Bo , Wenbo He

Confidence calibration, which aims to make model predictions equal to the true correctness measures, is important for neural machine translation (NMT) because it is able to offer useful indicators of translation errors in the generated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-05-05 Shuo Wang , Zhaopeng Tu , Shuming Shi , Yang Liu

The trade-off between relevance and fairness in personalized recommendations has been explored in recent works, with the goal of minimizing learned discrimination towards certain demographics while still producing relevant results. We…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2018-09-12 Chen Karako , Putra Manggala

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Emmanuel J. Candès , Michael I. Jordan , Lihua Lei

Scaling test-time computation with reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a reliable path to improve large language models (LLM) reasoning ability. Yet, outcome-based reward often incentivizes models to be overconfident, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Liaoyaqi Wang , Chunsheng Zuo , William Jurayj , Benjamin Van Durme , Anqi Liu

The evaluation of ranking tasks remains a significant challenge in natural language processing (NLP), particularly due to the lack of direct labels for results in real-world scenarios. Benchmark datasets play a crucial role in providing…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Yan Wang , Lingfei Qian , Xueqing Peng , Jimin Huang , Dongji Feng

Data augmentation is becoming essential for improving regression performance in critical applications including manufacturing, climate prediction, and finance. Existing techniques for data augmentation largely focus on classification tasks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-18 Seong-Hyeon Hwang , Steven Euijong Whang

Deep networks have achieved impressive results on a range of well-curated benchmark datasets. Surprisingly, their performance remains sensitive to perturbations that have little effect on human performance. In this work, we propose a novel…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Jonas Ngnawe , Marianne Abemgnigni Njifon , Jonathan Heek , Yann Dauphin

Probabilistic mixture models have been widely used for different machine learning and pattern recognition tasks such as clustering, dimensionality reduction, and classification. In this paper, we focus on trying to solve the most common…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Gustavo A Valencia-Zapata , Daniel Mejia , Gerhard Klimeck , Michael Zentner , Okan Ersoy

Modern deep neural networks can produce badly calibrated predictions, especially when train and test distributions are mismatched. Training an ensemble of models and averaging their predictions can help alleviate these issues. We propose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-09 Asa Cooper Stickland , Iain Murray

In next-generation communications and networks, machine learning (ML) models are expected to deliver not only accurate predictions but also well-calibrated confidence scores that reflect the true likelihood of correct decisions. This paper…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-21 Rashika Raina , Nidhi Simmons , David E. Simmons , Michel Daoud Yacoub , Trung Q. Duong

Class incremental learning refers to a special multi-class classification task, in which the number of classes is not fixed but is increasing with the continual arrival of new data. Existing researches mainly focused on solving catastrophic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-21 Xu Zhang , Yang Yao , Baile Xu , Lekun Mao , Furao Shen , Jian Zhao , Qingwei Lin

With the advancement of deep learning technology, neural networks have demonstrated their excellent ability to provide accurate predictions in many tasks. However, a lack of consideration for neural network calibration will not gain trust…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Lei Hsiung , Yung-Chen Tang , Pin-Yu Chen , Tsung-Yi Ho

Multi-label image classification datasets are often partially labeled where many labels are missing, posing a significant challenge to training accurate deep classifiers. However, the powerful Mixup sample-mixing data augmentation cannot be…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Chak Fong Chong , Jielong Guo , Xu Yang , Wei Ke , Yapeng Wang

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated inherent calibration capabilities, where predicted probabilities align well with correctness, despite prior findings that deep neural networks are often overconfident. Recent studies have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Abhinav Joshi , Areeb Ahmad , Ashutosh Modi

Multinomial Logit (MNL) is one of the most popular discrete choice models and has been widely used to model ranking data. However, there is a long-standing technical challenge of learning MNL from many real-world ranking data: exact…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-03 Jiaqi Ma , Xingjian Zhang , Qiaozhu Mei

With the widespread success of deep neural networks in science and technology, it is becoming increasingly important to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions produced by deep learning. In this paper, we introduce a new method that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Qingyang Wu , He Li , Lexin Li , Zhou Yu

Optimizing data mixtures is essential for unlocking the full potential of large language models (LLMs), yet identifying the optimal composition remains computationally prohibitive due to reliance on heuristic trials or expensive proxy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Jiapeng Wang , Changxin Tian , Kunlong Chen , Ziqi Liu , Jiaxin Mao , Wayne Xin Zhao , Zhiqiang Zhang , Jun Zhou