Related papers: Probability of a single current
We examine the fundamental aspects of statistical mechanics, dividing the problem into a discussion purely about probability, which we analyse from a Bayesian standpoint. We argue that the existence of a unique maximising probability…
An autoregressive process with Markov regime is an autoregressive process for which the regression function at each time point is given by a nonobservable Markov chain. In this paper we consider the asymptotic properties of the maximum…
We introduce the concept of an imprecise Markov semigroup \(\mathbf Q\). It is a tool that allows us to represent ambiguity around both the transition probabilities and the invariant measure of a continuous-time Markov process via a…
The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…
The problem of estimating the probability of a random process reaching a certain level is well known. In this article, two-sided estimates are established for the probability that a regenerative process reaches a high level. Two auxiliary…
One of the key features of non-equilibrium steady states (NESS) is the presence of nontrivial probability currents. We propose a general classification of NESS in which these currents play a central distinguishing role. As a corollary, we…
In this review-type paper written at the occasion of the Oberwolfach workshop {\em One-sided vs. Two-sided stochastic processes} (february 22-29, 2020), we discuss and compare Markov properties and generalisations thereof in more…
We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…
We study the two-dimensional joint distribution of the first hitting time of a constant level by a continuous-state branching process with immigration and their primitive stopped at this time. We show an explicit expression of its Laplace…
We introduce the notion of a protocol, which consists of a space whose points are labeled by real numbers indexed by the set of cells of a fixed CW complex in prescribed degrees, where the labels are required to vary continuously. If the…
It is well-known that 0 is the absorbing state for a branching system. Each particle in the system lives a random long time and gives a random number of new particles at its death time. It stops when the system has no particle. This paper…
Contrary to the theory of Markov processes, no general theory exists for the so called nonlinear Markov processes. We study an example of "nonlinear Markov process" related to classical probability theory, merely to random walks. This model…
Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…
We present a novel method for computing reachability probabilities of parametric discrete-time Markov chains whose transition probabilities are fractions of polynomials over a set of parameters. Our algorithm is based on two key…
The general problem is studied on a simple example. A quantum particle in an infinite one-dimensional well potential is considered. Let the boundaries of well changes in a finite time $T$. The standard methods for calculating probability of…
Lumping a Markov process introduces a coarser level of description that is useful in many contexts and applications. The dynamics on the coarse grained states is often approximated by its Markovian component. In this letter we derive…
The influence of a time-periodic forcing on stochastic processes can essentially be emphasized in the large time behaviour of their paths. The statistics of transition in a simple Markov chain model permits to quantify this influence. In…
We consider an ordinary differential equation with a unique hyperbolic attractor at the origin, to which we add a small random perturbation. It is known that under general conditions, the solution of this stochastic differential equation…
We present a recurrence-transience classification for discrete-time Markov chains on manifolds with negative curvature. Our classification depends only on geometric quantities associated to the increments of the chain, defined via the…
We consider a general piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) $X=\{X_t\}_{t\geqslant 0}$ with measure-valued generator $\mathcal{A}$, for which the conditional distribution function of the inter-occurrence time is not necessarily…