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Unobserved confounders are a long-standing issue in causal inference using propensity score methods. This study proposed nonparametric indices to quantify the impact of unobserved confounders through pseudo-experiments with an application…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-27 Beilin Jia , Donglin Zeng , Qing Yang , Wei Pan

We present new results on average causal effects in settings with unmeasured exposure-outcome confounding. Our results are motivated by a class of estimands, e.g., frequently of interest in medicine and public health, that are currently not…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-25 Lan Wen , Aaron L. Sarvet , Mats J. Stensrud

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-24 Insung Kong , Yuha Park , Joonhyuk Jung , Kwonsang Lee , Yongdai Kim

We introduce OpportunityFinder, a code-less framework for performing a variety of causal inference studies with panel data for non-expert users. In its current state, OpportunityFinder only requires users to provide raw observational data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Huy Nguyen , Prince Grover , Devashish Khatwani

Exploiting the indistinguishability of objects in a probabilistic graphical model such as a factor graph is key to lifted probabilistic inference algorithms and allows for tractable probabilistic inference problems with respect to domain…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Malte Luttermann , Ralf Möller , Marcel Gehrke

In recent years, the front-door criterion (FDC) has been increasingly noticed in economics and social science. However, most economists still resist collecting this tool in their empirical toolkit. This article aims to incorporate the FDC…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Zexuan Chen

Probabilities of causation are fundamental to individual-level explanation and decision making, yet they are inherently counterfactual and not point-identifiable from data in general. Existing bounds either disregard available covariates,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Yuxuan Xie , Ang Li

Causal approaches to post-hoc explainability for black-box prediction models (e.g., deep neural networks trained on image pixel data) have become increasingly popular. However, existing approaches have two important shortcomings: (i) the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Numair Sani , Daniel Malinsky , Ilya Shpitser

We consider the problem of precision matrix estimation where, due to extraneous confounding of the underlying precision matrix, the data are independent but not identically distributed. While such confounding occurs in many scientific…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-01 Sinong Geng , Mladen Kolar , Oluwasanmi Koyejo

Previous work has highlighted that existing post-hoc explanation methods exhibit disparities in explanation fidelity (across 'race' and 'gender' as sensitive attributes), and while a large body of work focuses on mitigating these issues at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Vishwali Mhasawade , Salman Rahman , Zoe Haskell-Craig , Rumi Chunara

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-06 Shuozhi Zuo , Yixin Wang

We study the estimation of causal parameters when not all confounders are observed and instead negative controls are available. Recent work has shown how these can enable identification and efficient estimation via two so-called bridge…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-11 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Masatoshi Uehara

Causal inference quantifies cause-effect relationships by estimating counterfactual parameters from data. This entails using \emph{identification theory} to establish a link between counterfactual parameters of interest and distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-17 Jaron J. R. Lee , Ilya Shpitser

This work extends causal inference with stochastic confounders. We propose a new approach to variational estimation for causal inference based on a representer theorem with a random input space. We estimate causal effects involving latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-26 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Wicher Bergsma , Tze-Yun Leong

Observational studies developing causal machine learning (ML) models for the prediction of individualized treatment effects (ITEs) seldom conduct empirical evaluations to assess the conditional exchangeability assumption. We aimed to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Gerard T. Portela , Jason B. Gibbons , Sebastian Schneeweiss , Rishi J. Desai

High dimensional covariance estimation and graphical models is a contemporary topic in statistics and machine learning having widespread applications. An important line of research in this regard is to shrink the extreme spectrum of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-28 Sang-Yun Oh , Bala Rajaratnam , Joong-Ho Won

A standard assumption for causal inference about the joint effects of time-varying treatment is that one has measured sufficient covariates to ensure that within covariate strata, subjects are exchangeable across observed treatment values,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-04 Andrew Ying , Wang Miao , Xu Shi , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

The capability of imagining internally with a mental model of the world is vitally important for human cognition. If a machine intelligent agent can learn a world model to create a "dream" environment, it can then internally ask what-if…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-29 Minne Li , Mengyue Yang , Furui Liu , Xu Chen , Zhitang Chen , Jun Wang

Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Anna Guo , David Benkeser , Razieh Nabi

Cox's proportional hazards model is one of the most popular statistical models to evaluate associations of exposure with a censored failure time outcome. When confounding factors are not fully observed, the exposure hazard ratio estimated…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-04 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , Torben Martinussen , Stijn Vansteelandt