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This paper introduces a global stock market volatility forecasting model that enhances forecasting accuracy and practical utility in real-world financial decision-making by integrating dynamic graph structures and encompassing all active…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-17 Zhengyang Chi , Junbin Gao , Chao Wang

We document the first systematic evidence of negative spillover effects in crypto asset returns across blockchains. Using on-chain data from Ethereum, Solana, Binance Smart Chain, Arbitrum, and Avalanche (2022-2025), we show that surges on…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-02 Mengzhong Ma , Te Bao , Yonggang Wen

Momentum strategies are an important part of alternative investments and are at the heart of commodity trading advisors (CTAs). These strategies have, however, been found to have difficulties adjusting to rapid changes in market conditions,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-21 Kieran Wood , Stephen Roberts , Stefan Zohren

The primary objective of this research is to build a Momentum Transformer that is expected to outperform benchmark time-series momentum and mean-reversion trading strategies. We extend the ideas introduced in the paper Trading with the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-18 Max Mason , Waasi A Jagirdar , David Huang , Rahul Murugan

In complex networks, the rich-get-richer effect (nodes with high degree at one point in time gain more degree in their future) is commonly observed. In practice this is often studied on a static network snapshot, for example, a preferential…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Matthew Russell Barnes , Vincenzo Nicosia , Richard G. Clegg

We propose some kinetic models of wealth exchange and investigate their behavior on directed networks though numerical simulations. We observe that network topology and directedness yields a variety of interesting features in these models.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-13 Arnab Chatterjee

This paper introduces SpotV2Net, a multivariate intraday spot volatility forecasting model based on a Graph Attention Network architecture. SpotV2Net represents assets as nodes within a graph and includes non-parametric high-frequency…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-14 Alessio Brini , Giacomo Toscano

A stock market is considered as one of the highly complex systems, which consists of many components whose prices move up and down without having a clear pattern. The complex nature of a stock market challenges us on making a reliable…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-09-27 Minjun Kim , Hiroki Sayama

An artificial agent for financial risk and returns' prediction is built with a modular cognitive system comprised of interconnected recurrent neural networks, such that the agent learns to predict the financial returns, and learns to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-19 Carlos Pedro Gonçalves

Many cryptocurrency brokers nowadays offer a variety of derivative assets that allow traders to perform hedging or speculation. This paper proposes an effective algorithm based on neural networks to take advantage of these investment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-03 Quoc Minh Nguyen , Dat Thanh Tran , Juho Kanniainen , Alexandros Iosifidis , Moncef Gabbouj

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-01 Marcus Gawronsky , Chun-Sung Huang

The global financial system can be represented as a large complex network in which banks, hedge funds and other financial institutions are interconnected to each other through visible and invisible financial linkages. Recently, a lot of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-04-11 Fabio Caccioli , Paolo Barucca , Teruyoshi Kobayashi

Risk assessment and in particular derivatives pricing is one of the core areas in computational finance and accounts for a sizeable fraction of the global computing resources of the financial industry. We outline a quantum-inspired…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-03-08 Michael Kastoryano , Nicola Pancotti

Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-18 Yang-Yu Liu , Jose C. Nacher , Tomoshiro Ochiai , Mauro Martino , Yaniv Altshuler

Online portfolio selection is an integral componentof wealth management. The fundamental undertaking is tomaximise returns while minimising risk given investor con-straints. We aim to examine and improve modern strategiesto generate higher…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Matthew Kruger , Terence L. van Zyl , Andrew Paskaramoorthy

Deep neural networks, and in particular recurrent networks, are promising candidates to control autonomous agents that interact in real-time with the physical world. However, this requires a seamless integration of temporal features into…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-05 Volker Fischer , Jan Köhler , Thomas Pfeil

This paper focuses on a dynamic multi-asset mean-variance portfolio selection problem under model uncertainty. We develop a continuous time framework for taking into account ambiguity aversion about both expected return rates and…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-02 Huyen Pham , Xiaoli Wei , Chao Zhou

Financial networks are typically estimated by applying standard time series analyses to price-based economic variables collected at low-frequency (e.g., daily or monthly stock returns or realized volatility). These networks are used for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-08-09 Kara Karpman , Sumanta Basu , David Easley

Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-05 Eric C. Hall , Rebecca M. Willett

Prediction markets rely on liquidity to convert trades into informative prices, yet existing mechanisms fix liquidity ex ante. This restriction enforces a static trade-off between price responsiveness and worst-case loss despite inherently…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Enrique Nueve , Bao Nguyen , Rafael Frongillo , Bo Waggoner