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Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, e.g., forecasting, modelling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper introduces a new…
The paper develops new methods of non-parametric estimation a compound Poisson distribution. Such a problem arise, in particular, in the inference of a Levy process recorded at equidistant time intervals. Our key estimator is based on…
This paper studies methods for testing and estimating change-points in the covariance structure of a high-dimensional linear time series. The assumed framework allows for a large class of multivariate linear processes (including vector…
In this article, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the residual autocorrelations for periodic vector autoregressive time series models (PVAR henceforth) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations (i.e., weak PVAR). We then deduce the…
This paper introduces the novel class of modulated cyclostationary processes, a class of non-stationary processes exhibiting frequency coupling, and proposes a method of their estimation from repeated trials. Cyclostationary processes also…
Simultaneous inference for high-dimensional non-Gaussian time series is always considered to be a challenging problem. Such tasks require not only robust estimation of the coefficients in the random process, but also deriving limiting…
This study extends the Bayesian nonparametric instrumental variable regression model to determine the structural effects of covariates on the conditional quantile of the response variable. The error distribution is nonparametrically…
The autoregressive (AR) models are used to represent the time-varying random process in which output depends linearly on previous terms and a stochastic term (the innovation). In the classical version, the AR models are based on normal…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…
Prediction is a key issue in time series analysis. Just as classical mean regression models, classical autoregressive methods, yielding L$^2$ point-predictions, provide rather poor predictive summaries; a much more informative approach is…
In the gravitational-wave analysis of pulsar-timing-array datasets, parameter estimation is usually performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to explore posterior probability densities. We introduce an alternative procedure that…
Motivated by the maneuvering target tracking with sensors such as radar and sonar, this paper considers the joint and recursive estimation of the dynamic state and the time-varying process noise covariance in nonlinear state space models.…
Analysis of multivariate time series is a common problem in areas like finance and economics. The classical tool for this purpose are vector autoregressive models. These however are limited to the modeling of linear and symmetric…
This paper studies a class of linear panel models with random coefficients. We do not restrict the joint distribution of the time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity and the covariates. We investigate identification of the average partial…
A Poisson autoregressive (PAR) model accounting for discreteness and autocorrelation of count time series data is typically estimated in the state-space modelling framework through extended Kalman filter. However, because of the complex…
Instrumental variable (IV) regression relies on instruments to infer causal effects from observational data with unobserved confounding. We consider IV regression in time series models, such as vector auto-regressive (VAR) processes. Direct…
Motivated by predicting intraday trading volume curves, we consider two spatio-temporal autoregressive models for matrix time series, in which each column may represent daily trading volume curve of one asset, and each row captures…
We provide a new non-parametric Fourier procedure to estimate the trajectory of the instantaneous covariance process (from discrete observations of a multidimensional price process) in the presence of jumps extending the seminal work…
We propose a pointwise inference algorithm for high-dimensional linear models with time-varying coefficients. The method is based on a novel combination of the nonparametric kernel smoothing technique and a Lasso bias-corrected ridge…
Many real-world systems modeled using differential equations involve unknown or uncertain parameters. Standard approaches to address parameter estimation inverse problems in this setting typically focus on estimating constants; yet some…