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We often collect data from multiple sites (e.g., hospitals) that share common structure but also exhibit heterogeneity. This paper aims to learn robust sequential decision-making policies from such offline, multi-site datasets. To model…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Mingyuan Xu , Zongqi Xia , Tianxi Cai , Doudou Zhou , Nian Si

The ability to compute reward-optimal policies for given and known finite Markov decision processes (MDPs) underpins a variety of applications across planning, controller synthesis, and verification. However, we often want policies (1) to…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Linus Heck , Filip Macák , Milan Češka , Sebastian Junges

Graph games are fundamental in strategic reasoning of multi-agent systems and their environments. We study a new family of graph games which combine stochastic environmental uncertainties and auction-based interactions among the agents,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Guy Avni , Martin Kurečka , Kaushik Mallik , Petr Novotný , Suman Sadhukhan

Contextual Markov decision processes (CMDPs) describe a class of reinforcement learning problems in which the transition kernels and reward functions can change over time with different MDPs indexed by a context variable. While CMDPs serve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Junze Deng , Yuan Cheng , Shaofeng Zou , Yingbin Liang

In many operations management problems, we need to make decisions sequentially to minimize the cost while satisfying certain constraints. One modeling approach to study such problems is constrained Markov decision process (CMDP). When…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-27 Yi Chen , Jing Dong , Zhaoran Wang

Despite its prevalence, probabilistic bisimilarity suffers from a lack of robustness under minuscule perturbations of the transition probabilities. This can lead to discontinuities in the probabilistic bisimilarity distance function,…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Syyeda Zainab Fatmi , Stefan Kiefer , David Parker , Franck van Breugel

Planning under uncertainty is a central problem in the study of automated sequential decision making, and has been addressed by researchers in many different fields, including AI planning, decision analysis, operations research, control…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-05-30 C. Boutilier , T. Dean , S. Hanks

Decision-making under distribution shift is a central challenge in reinforcement learning (RL), where training and deployment environments differ. We study this problem through the lens of robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs), which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Jingwen Gu , Yiting He , Zhishuai Liu , Pan Xu

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) provides a framework for training machine learning models that are able to perform well on a collection of related data distributions (the "uncertainty set"). This is done by solving a min-max…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-01 Paul Michel , Tatsunori Hashimoto , Graham Neubig

Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) are studied in a general framework. First, different constructions are proven to be equivalent. Second, we introduce a coupling between two PDMPs following the same differential flow which…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-03 Alain Durmus , Arnaud Guillin , Pierre Monmarché

Many problems in sequential decision making and stochastic control often have natural multiscale structure: sub-tasks are assembled together to accomplish complex goals. Systematically inferring and leveraging hierarchical structure,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-12-06 Jake Bouvrie , Mauro Maggioni

A basic model in sequential decision making is the Markov decision process (MDP), which is extended to Robust MDPs (RMDPs) by allowing uncertainty in transition probabilities and optimizing against the worst-case transition probabilities…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Ali Asadi , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Alipasha Montaseri , Ali Shafiee

We study a class of multi-stage stochastic programs, which incorporate modeling features from Markov decision processes (MDPs). This class includes structured MDPs with continuous action and state spaces. We extend policy graphs to include…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-09 David P. Morton , Oscar Dowson , Bernardo K. Pagnoncelli

We introduce a framework for approximate analysis of Markov decision processes (MDP) with bounded-, unbounded-, and infinite-horizon properties. The main idea is to identify a "core" of an MDP, i.e., a subsystem where we provably remain…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-22 Jan Křetínský , Tobias Meggendorfer

Distributionally robust optimization tackles out-of-sample issues like overfitting and distribution shifts by adopting an adversarial approach over a range of possible data distributions, known as the ambiguity set. To balance conservatism…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Ahmad-Reza Ehyaei , Golnoosh Farnadi , Samira Samadi

The goal of this paper is to analyze distributional Markov Decision Processes as a class of control problems in which the objective is to learn policies that steer the distribution of a cumulative reward toward a prescribed target law,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Nicole Bäuerle , Athanasios Vasileiadis

We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-18 Timothy Christensen , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

Graph games and Markov decision processes (MDPs) are standard models in reactive synthesis and verification of probabilistic systems with nondeterminism. The class of $\omega$-regular winning conditions; e.g., safety, reachability,…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-06-28 Pranav Ashok , Tomáš Brázdil , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Jan Křetínský , Christoph H. Lampert , Viktor Toman

We study the offline data-driven sequential decision making problem in the framework of Markov decision process (MDP). In order to enhance the generalizability and adaptivity of the learned policy, we propose to evaluate each policy by a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-11 Zhengling Qi , Peng Liao

Markov chains and Markov decision processes (MDPs) are well-established probabilistic models. While finite Markov models are well-understood, analysing their infinite counterparts remains a significant challenge. Decisiveness has proven to…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Nathalie Bertrand , Patricia Bouyer , Thomas Brihaye , Paulin Fournier , Pierre Vandenhove