Related papers: Monitoring a developing pandemic with available da…
A mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic spread, which integrates age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased dynamics with real mobile phone data accounting for the population mobility, is presented. The dynamical…
For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…
Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…
Scientific advice to the UK government throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has been informed by ensembles of epidemiological models provided by members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (SPI-M). Among other applications,…
We address the problem of modeling constrained hospital resources in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to inform decision-makers of future demand and assess the societal value of possible interventions. For broad applicability, we…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare…
Forecasting the future course of epidemics has always been one of the main goals of epidemic modelling. This chapter reviews statistical methods to quantify the accuracy of epidemic forecasts. We distinguish point and probabilistic…
The long duration of the COVID-19 pandemic allowed for multiple bursts in the infection and death rates, the so-called epidemic waves. This complex behavior is no longer tractable by simple compartmental model and requires more…
This article explores mathematical models for understanding the evolution of contagious diseases. The most widely known set of models are the compartmental ones, which are based on a set of differential equations. But these are not the only…
The world is suffering from a pandemic called COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. National governments have problems evaluating the reach of the epidemic, due to having limited resources and tests at their disposal. This problem is…
The adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of…
For the last few years there has been a resurgence in the use of phenomenological growth models for predicting the early dynamics of infectious diseases. These models assume that time is a continuous variable whereas in the present…
The emergence of novel infectious agents presents challenges to statistical models of disease transmission. These challenges arise from limited, poor-quality data and an incomplete understanding of the agent. Moreover, outbreaks manifest…
Stochastic compartmental models are prevalent tools for describing disease spread, but inference under these models is challenging for many types of surveillance data when the marginal likelihood function becomes intractable due to missing…
After the breakout of the disease caused by the new virus COVID-19, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other…
The widely spread CoronaVirus Disease (COVID)-19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks in history and has become an emergency of primary international concern. As the pandemic evolves, academic communities have been actively…
The COVID-19 disease has forced countries to make a considerable collaborative effort between scientists and governments to provide indicators to suitable follow-up the pandemic's consequences. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in…
The COVID-19 pandemic and the mitigation policies implemented in response to it have resulted in economic losses worldwide. Attempts to understand the relationship between economics and epidemiology has lead to a new generation of…
One of the difficulties in monitoring an ongoing pandemic is deciding on the metric that best describes its status when multiple intercorrelated measurements are available. Having a single measure, such as the effective reproduction number…