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1.A goal of many research programs in biology is to extract meaningful insights from large, complex data sets. Researchers in Ecology, Evolution and Behavior (EEB) often grapple with long-term, observational data sets from which they…
Classical confidence intervals after best subset selection are widely implemented in statistical software and are routinely used to guide practitioners in scientific fields to conclude significance. However, there are increasing concerns in…
In data-driven optimization, the sample performance of the obtained decision typically incurs an optimistic bias against the true performance, a phenomenon commonly known as the Optimizer's Curse and intimately related to overfitting in…
This paper considers the problem of approximating a density when it can be evaluated up to a normalizing constant at a limited number of points. We call this problem the Boltzmann approximation (BA) problem. The BA problem is ubiquitous in…
In many conventional scientific investigations with high or ultra-high dimensional feature spaces, the relevant features, though sparse, are large in number compared with classical statistical problems, and the magnitude of their effects…
We study model selection by the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in fixed-dimensional exploratory factor analysis over a fixed finite family of compact covariance classes. Our main result shows that the BIC is strongly consistent for…
Data-driven model discovery (DDMD) algorithms are powerful tools for extracting interpretable symbolic models from data. However, identifying the model that best balances goodness-of-fit and sparsity is often a laborious process requiring…
For marginal structural models, which recently play an important role in causal inference, we consider a model selection problem in the framework of a semiparametric approach using inverse-probability-weighted estimation or doubly robust…
The Cox proportional hazards model, commonly used in clinical trials, assumes proportional hazards. However, it does not hold when, for example, there is a delayed onset of the treatment effect. In such a situation, an acute change in the…
In statistical modeling area, the Akaike information criterion AIC, is a widely known and extensively used tool for model choice. The {\phi}-divergence test statistic is a recently developed tool for statistical model selection. The…
For an AI system to be reliable, the confidence it expresses in its decisions must match its accuracy. To assess the degree of match, examples are typically binned by confidence and the per-bin mean confidence and accuracy are compared.…
Motor Imagery-Based Brain-Computer Interfaces (MI-BCIs) are systems that detect and interpret brain activity patterns linked to the mental visualization of movement, and then translate these into instructions for controlling external…
Elbow fractures are one of the most common fracture types. Diagnoses on elbow fractures often need the help of radiographic imaging to be read and analyzed by a specialized radiologist with years of training. Thanks to the recent advances…
We consider approximate Bayesian model choice for model selection problems that involve models whose Fisher-information matrices may fail to be invertible along other competing submodels. Such singular models do not obey the regularity…
For predictive evaluation based on quasi-posterior distributions, we develop a new information criterion, the posterior covariance information criterion (PCIC. PCIC generalises the widely applicable information criterion WAIC so as to…
We review the Akaike, deviance, and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria from a Bayesian perspective, where the goal is to estimate expected out-of-sample-prediction error using a biascorrected adjustment of within-sample error. We focus on…
Transient recurring phenomena are ubiquitous in many scientific fields like neuroscience and meteorology. Time inhomogenous Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR) may be used to characterize peri-event system dynamics associated with such…
This work studies an information-theoretic performance limit of an integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) system where the goal of sensing is to estimate a random continuous state. Considering the mean-squared error (MSE) for…
Maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) are asymptotically normally distributed, and this property is used in meta-analyses to test the heterogeneity of estimates, either for a single cluster or for several sub-groups. More recently, MLEs for…
We consider the use of Bayesian information criteria for selection of the graph underlying an Ising model. In an Ising model, the full conditional distributions of each variable form logistic regression models, and variable selection…