Related papers: Generalized Bradley-Terry Models for Score Estimat…

This paper studies grading algorithms for randomized exams. In a randomized exam, each student is asked a small number of random questions from a large question bank. The predominant grading rule is simple averaging, i.e., calculating…

In Bayesian inference, we are usually interested in the numerical approximation of integrals that are posterior expectations or marginal likelihoods (a.k.a., Bayesian evidence). In this paper, we focus on the computation of the posterior…

This paper studies expected performance and practical feasibility of the most commonly used classes of source-level likelihood-ratio (LR) systems when applied to a trace-reference comparison problem. The paper compares performance of these…

Probabilistic learning is increasingly being tackled as an optimization problem, with gradient-based approaches as predominant methods. When modelling multivariate likelihoods, a usual but undesirable outcome is that the learned model fits…

Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model estimation is a well-established strategy to rank a collection of items given a dataset of pairwise comparisons. Although the theoretical performance of BTL estimation methods, such as spectral and maximum…

Pairwise ranking systems based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), such as the Bradley-Terry model, are widely used to aggregate preferences from pairwise comparisons. However, their robustness under strategic data manipulation remains…

We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…

We measure LLMs' output error at pairwise text comparison, noting the probability of error in their preferences. Our method does not rely on the ground truth and supports two scenarios: (i) uniform error rate regardless of the order of…

Ranking geographical or administrative units, such as countries or states, is a well-known approach for comparing developmental progress and informing evidence-based policymaking. Existing ranking methodologies typically rely on a single…

Causal or unconfounded descriptive comparisons between multiple groups are common in observational studies. Motivated from a racial disparity study in health services research, we propose a unified propensity score weighting framework, the…

Both Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and composite likelihood methods are useful for Bayesian and frequentist inference, respectively, when the likelihood function is intractable. We propose to use composite likelihood score…

In this article, a general family of bivariate distributions is used to model competing risks data with dependent factors. The general structure of competing risks data considered here includes ties. A comprehensive inferential framework…

Gradient Boost Decision Trees (GBDT) is a powerful additive model based on tree ensembles. Its nature makes GBDT a black-box model even though there are multiple explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) models obtaining information by…

This paper proposes a new way of evaluating the accuracy and validity of probabilistic forecasts that change over time (such as an in-game win probability model, or an election forecast). Under this approach, each model to be evaluated is…

In this article, we propose the outcome-adjusted balance measure to perform model selection for the generalized propensity score (GPS), which serves as an essential component in estimation of the pairwise average treatment effects (ATEs) in…

Preference-based data often appear complex and noisy but may conceal underlying homogeneous structures. This paper introduces a novel framework of ranking structure recognition for preference-based data. We first develop an approach to…

Gaussian boson sampling (GBS) is considered a candidate problem for demonstrating quantum advantage. We propose an algorithm for approximate classical simulation of a lossy GBS instance. The algorithm relies on the Taylor series expansion,…

We address the problem of learning a ranking by using adaptively chosen pairwise comparisons. Our goal is to recover the ranking accurately but to sample the comparisons sparingly. If all comparison outcomes are consistent with the ranking,…

We consider the problem of ranking a set of items from pairwise comparisons in the presence of features associated with the items. Recent works have established that $O(n\log(n))$ samples are needed to rank well when there is no feature…

Bayesian inference in generalized linear models requires a prior on the coefficient vector $\beta$. Practitioners naturally reason about response probabilities at specific covariate values, not about abstract log-odds parameters. We develop…