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Analyses of extended arcs in strong gravitational lensing images to date have constrained the properties of dark matter by measuring the parameters of one or two individual subhalos. However, since such analyses are reliant on…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-03-19 Adam Coogan , Noemi Anau Montel , Konstantin Karchev , Meiert W. Grootes , Francesco Nattino , Christoph Weniger

This paper shows that sequential statistical analysis techniques can be generalised to the problem of selecting between alternative forecasting methods using scoring rules. A return to basic principles is necessary in order to show that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-15 David T. Frazier , Donald S. Poskitt

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-29 Alexander Moreno , Tameem Adel , Edward Meeds , James M. Rehg , Max Welling

Scalable algorithms of posterior approximation allow Bayesian nonparametrics such as Dirichlet process mixture to scale up to larger dataset at fractional cost. Recent algorithms, notably the stochastic variational inference performs local…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Kart-Leong Lim , Xudong Jiang

Contemporary applications, such as recommendation systems and mobile health monitoring, require real-time processing and analysis of sequentially arriving high-dimensional tensor data. Traditional offline learning, involving the storage and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-16 Xin Wen , Will Wei Sun , Yichen Zhang

Neural reasoners such as Tiny Recursive Models (TRMs) solve complex problems by combining neural backbones with specialized inference schemes. Such inference schemes have been a central component of stochastic reasoning systems, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Mieszko Komisarczyk , Saurabh Mathur , Maurice Kraus , Sriraam Natarajan , Kristian Kersting

Stochastic variational inference (SVI) employs stochastic optimization to scale up Bayesian computation to massive data. Since SVI is at its core a stochastic gradient-based algorithm, horizontal parallelism can be harnessed to allow larger…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-16 Saad Mohamad , Abdelhamid Bouchachia , Moamar Sayed-Mouchaweh

We introduce scalable algorithms for online learning of neural network parameters and Bayesian sequential decision making. Unlike classical Bayesian neural networks, which induce predictive uncertainty through a posterior over model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Gerardo Duran-Martin , Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt , Álvaro Cartea , Kevin Murphy

We introduce an innovative method for incremental nonparametric probabilistic inference in high-dimensional state spaces. Our approach leverages \slices from high-dimensional surfaces to efficiently approximate posterior distributions of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Moshe Shienman , Ohad Levy-Or , Michael Kaess , Vadim Indelman

The rapid growth of online network platforms generates large-scale network data and it poses great challenges for statistical analysis using the spatial autoregression (SAR) model. In this work, we develop a novel distributed estimation and…

Computation · Statistics 2023-11-29 Yimeng Ren , Zhe Li , Xuening Zhu , Yuan Gao , Hansheng Wang

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

Driven by steady progress in deep generative modeling, simulation-based inference (SBI) has emerged as the workhorse for inferring the parameters of stochastic simulators. However, recent work has demonstrated that model misspecification…

Importance Sampling (IS) is a method for approximating expectations under a target distribution using independent samples from a proposal distribution and the associated importance weights. In many applications, the target distribution is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-14 Gabriel Cardoso , Sergey Samsonov , Achille Thin , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson

While backpropagation--reverse-mode automatic differentiation--has been extraordinarily successful in deep learning, it requires two passes (forward and backward) through the neural network and the storage of intermediate activations.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Daniel Wang , Evan Markou , Dylan Campbell

Recently, fitting probabilistic models have gained importance in many areas but estimation of such distributional models with very large data sets is a difficult task. In particular, the use of rather complex models can easily lead to…

Exact structured inference with neural network scoring functions is computationally challenging but several methods have been proposed for approximating inference. One approach is to perform gradient descent with respect to the output…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-07-09 Lifu Tu , Kevin Gimpel

Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex and large-scale predictive problems. The recent success of deep neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-14 Roy Shivam Ram Shreshtth , Arnab Hazra , Gourab Mukherjee

Stochastic differential equation mixed-effects models (SDEMEMs) are flexible hierarchical models that are able to account for random variability inherent in the underlying time-dynamics, as well as the variability between experimental units…

Computation · Statistics 2021-01-22 Samuel Wiqvist , Andrew Golightly , Ashleigh T. McLean , Umberto Picchini

One of the goals in scaling sequential machine learning methods pertains to dealing with high-dimensional data spaces. A key related challenge is that many methods heavily depend on obtaining the inverse covariance matrix of the data. It is…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-28 Tomer Lancewicki

Simulation plays a central role in scientific discovery. In many applications, the bottleneck is no longer running a simulator; it is choosing among large families of plausible simulators, each corresponding to different forward…