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Counterfactual (CF) explanations for machine learning (ML) models are preferred by end-users, as they explain the predictions of ML models by providing a recourse (or contrastive) case to individuals who are adversely impacted by predicted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Hangzhi Guo , Feiran Jia , Jinghui Chen , Anna Squicciarini , Amulya Yadav

The growing prevalence of drift and shocks in modern decision environments exposes a gap between classical optimization theory and real-world practice. Standard models assume fixed objectives, yet organizations from hospitals to power grids…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-18 JINHO CHA

Counterfactual explanations offer an intuitive and straightforward way to explain black-box models and offer algorithmic recourse to individuals. To address the need for plausible explanations, existing work has primarily relied on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Patrick Altmeyer , Mojtaba Farmanbar , Arie van Deursen , Cynthia C. S. Liem

As a paradigm for sequential decision making in unknown environments, reinforcement learning (RL) has received a flurry of attention in recent years. However, the explosion of model complexity in emerging applications and the presence of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-22 Yuejie Chi , Yuxin Chen , Yuting Wei

The growing integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models into high-stakes domains such as healthcare and scientific research calls for models that are not only accurate but also interpretable. Among the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Zhuo Cao , Xuan Zhao , Lena Krieger , Hanno Scharr , Ira Assent

Decisions to pursue higher education are not fully explained by economic incentives, with social influence and peer effects playing a crucial, yet dynamically understudied, role. This paper develops a theoretical non-linear dynamics model…

General Economics · Economics 2026-04-06 Andrea Caravaggio , Marco Catola , Silvia Leoni

Existing causal inference (CI) models are often restricted to data with low-dimensional confounders and singleton actions. We propose an autoregressive (AR) CI framework capable of handling complex confounders and sequential actions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Daniel Jiwoong Im , Kevin Zhang , Nakul Verma , Kyunghyun Cho

In recent years, explainability in machine learning has gained importance. In this context, counterfactual explanation (CE), which is an explanation method that uses examples, has attracted attention. However, it has been pointed out that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Keita Kinjo

Counterfactuals answer questions of what would have been observed under altered circumstances and can therefore offer valuable insights. Whereas the classical interventional interpretation of counterfactuals has been studied extensively,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Julius von Kügelgen , Bernhard Schölkopf , Michael Muehlebach

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

We consider large-scale systems influenced by burnout variables - state variables that start active, shape dynamics, and irreversibly deactivate once certain conditions are met. Simulating what-if scenarios in such systems is…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2025-09-05 Benjamin Heymann

Accurate estimation of counterfactual outcomes in high-dimensional data is crucial for decision-making and understanding causal relationships and intervention outcomes in various domains, including healthcare, economics, and social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Jiageng Zhu , Hanchen Xie , Jiazhi Li , Wael Abd-Almageed

With the growing use of machine learning (ML) models in critical domains such as finance and healthcare, the need to offer recourse for those adversely affected by the decisions of ML models has become more important; individuals ought to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Haochen Wu , Shubham Sharma , Sunandita Patra , Sriram Gopalakrishnan

Machine learning is increasingly used to inform decision-making in sensitive situations where decisions have consequential effects on individuals' lives. In these settings, in addition to requiring models to be accurate and robust, socially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Amir-Hossein Karimi , Gilles Barthe , Bernhard Schölkopf , Isabel Valera

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) offer a human-understandable way to explain decisions by identifying specific changes to the input parameters of a base or present model that would lead to a desired change in the outcome. For optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Felix Engelhardt , Jannis Kurtz , Ş. İlker Birbil , Ted Ralphs

We present CounterfactualExplanations.jl: a package for generating Counterfactual Explanations (CE) and Algorithmic Recourse (AR) for black-box models in Julia. CE explain how inputs into a model need to change to yield specific model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-15 Patrick Altmeyer , Arie van Deursen , Cynthia C. S. Liem

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Shicheng Fan , Kun Zhang , Lu Cheng

Counterfactual explanations provide ways of achieving a favorable model outcome with minimum input perturbation. However, counterfactual explanations can also be leveraged to reconstruct the model by strategically training a surrogate model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-13 Pasan Dissanayake , Sanghamitra Dutta

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has emerged as a popular solution to mitigate the hallucination issues of large language models. However, existing studies on RAG seldom address the issue of predictive uncertainty, i.e., how likely it…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-05 Lu Chen , Ruqing Zhang , Jiafeng Guo , Yixing Fan , Xueqi Cheng

Counterfactual explanations are a common approach to providing recourse to data subjects. However, current methodology can produce counterfactuals that cannot be achieved by the subject, making the use of counterfactuals for recourse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-04 Alexander Asemota , Giles Hooker
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