Related papers: Nested Multilevel Monte Carlo with Biased and Anti…

In computational mechanics, multiple models are often present to describe a physical system. While Bayesian model selection is a helpful tool to compare these models using measurement data, it requires the computationally expensive…

In sampling tasks, it is common for target distributions to be known up to a normalizing constant. However, in many situations, even evaluating the unnormalized distribution can be costly or infeasible. This issue arises in scenarios such…

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

In this paper, we introduce the $\sigma$-antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator for a multi-dimensional diffusion which is an extended version of the original antithetic MLMC one introduced by Giles and Szpruch \cite{a}. Our aim…

Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…

We develop new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to estimate the expectation of the smallest eigenvalue of a stochastic convection-diffusion operator with random coefficients. The MLMC method is based on a sequence of finite element…

We present general principles for the design and analysis of unbiased Monte Carlo estimators in a wide range of settings. Our estimators posses finite work-normalized variance under mild regularity conditions. We apply our estimators to…

Multilevel Monte Carlo is a key tool for approximating integrals involving expensive scientific models. The idea is to use approximations of the integrand to construct an estimator with improved accuracy over classical Monte Carlo. We…

We introduce three related but distinct improvements to multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for the solution of systems of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Firstly, we show that when the payoff function is twice continuously…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo…

Delayed-acceptance is a technique for reducing computational effort for Bayesian models with expensive likelihoods. Using a delayed-acceptance kernel for Markov chain Monte Carlo can reduce the number of expensive likelihoods evaluations…

Bayesian modelling and computational inference by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a principled framework for large-scale uncertainty quantification, though is limited in practice by computational cost when implemented in the simplest…

In this paper we propose a general framework for the uncertainty quantification of quantities of interest for high-contrast single-phase flow problems. It is based on the generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM) and multilevel…

For many complex simulation tasks spanning areas such as healthcare, engineering, and finance, Monte Carlo (MC) methods are invaluable due to their unbiased estimates and precise error quantification. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulations…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful methodology for the approximation of posterior distributions. However, the iterative nature of MCMC does not naturally facilitate its use with modern highly parallel computation on HPC and cloud…

Stochastic collocation methods for approximating the solution of partial differential equations with random input data (e.g., coefficients and forcing terms) suffer from the curse of dimensionality whereby increases in the stochastic…

We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is computationally expensive, especially for complex models. Alternative methods make simplifying assumptions about the posterior to reduce computational burden, but their impact on predictive…

We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty quantification in PDE models. It combines approximations at different levels of accuracy using a hierarchy of…