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In this paper, we examine the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) procedure within a framework where the Monte Carlo estimator of the expectation is biased. We also introduce Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) in the SAA setup to enhance the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-29 Devang Sinha , Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty

In this paper we propose an efficient stochastic optimization algorithm to search for Bayesian experimental designs such that the expected information gain is maximized. The gradient of the expected information gain with respect to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-03 Takashi Goda , Tomohiko Hironaka , Wataru Kitade , Adam Foster

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Kei Ishikawa , Takashi Goda

This paper considers the challenging computational task of estimating nested expectations. Existing algorithms, such as nested Monte Carlo or multilevel Monte Carlo, are known to be consistent but require a large number of samples at both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Zonghao Chen , Masha Naslidnyk , François-Xavier Briol

Partial differential equation is a powerful tool to characterize various physics systems. In practice, measurement errors are often present and probability models are employed to account for such uncertainties. In this paper, we present a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-23 Xiaoou Li , Jingchen Liu

We present a new antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the estimation of expectations with respect to laws of diffusion processes that can be elliptic or hypo-elliptic. In particular, we consider the case where one has to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Yuga Iguchi , Ajay Jasra , Mohamed Maama , Alexandros Beskos

We propose and analyze a Multilevel Richardson-Romberg (MLRR) estimator which combines the higher order bias cancellation of the Multistep Richardson-Romberg method introduced in [Pa07] and the variance control resulting from the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-10 Vincent Lemaire , Gilles Pagès

This position paper summarizes a recently developed research program focused on inference in the context of data centric science and engineering applications, and forecasts its trajectory forward over the next decade. Often one endeavours…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-06 Ajay Jasra , Kody J. H. Law , Alexander Tarakanov , Fangyuan Yu

The multi-level Monte Carlo method proposed by M. Giles (2008) approximates the expectation of some functionals applied to a stochastic process with optimal order of convergence for the mean-square error. In this paper, a modified…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-20 Kristian Debrabant , Andreas Rößler

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Tim J. Dodwell , Colin Fox , Grigorios Mingas , Robert Scheichl

We present a novel multilevel Monte Carlo approach for estimating quantities of interest for stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Drawing inspiration from [Giles and Szpruch: Antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo estimation for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-15 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Andreas Stein

Nested integration problems arise in various scientific and engineering applications, including Bayesian experimental design, financial risk assessment, and uncertainty quantification. These nested integrals take the form $\int f\left(\int…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Arved Bartuska , André Gustavo Carlon , Luis Espath , Sebastian Krumscheid , Raúl Tempone

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Pieter Vanmechelen , Geert Lombaert , Giovanni Samaey

This article discusses MLMC estimators with and without weights, applied to nested expectations of the form E [f (E [F (Y, Z)|Y ])]. More precisely, we are interested on the assumptions needed to comply with the MLMC framework, depending on…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-10 Daphné Giorgi , Vincent Lemaire , Gilles Pagès

The multilevel Monte Carlo method is applied to an academic example in the field of electromagnetism. The method exhibits a reduced variance by assigning the samples to multiple models with a varying spatial resolution. For the given…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2017-09-26 Armin Galetzka , Zeger Bontinck , Ulrich Römer , Sebastian Schöps

We apply multilevel Monte Carlo for option pricing problems using exponential L\'{e}vy models with a uniform timestep discretisation to monitor the running maximum required for lookback and barrier options. The numerical results demonstrate…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-05-31 Mike Giles , Yuan Xia

The simulation of the expectation of a stochastic quantity E[Y] by Monte Carlo methods is known to be computationally expensive especially if the stochastic quantity or its approximation Y_n is expensive to simulate, e.g., the solution of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Annika Lang , Andreas Petersson

We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods which reformulates the essence of the nested sampling method of Skilling (2006) in terms of sequential Monte Carlo techniques. Two new algorithms are proposed, nested sampling via…

We propose Subsampling MCMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework where the likelihood function for $n$ observations is estimated from a random subset of $m$ observations. We introduce a highly efficient unbiased estimator of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-31 Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Mattias Villani , Minh-Ngoc Tran