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Modern cosmological analyses constrain physical parameters using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or similar sampling techniques. Oftentimes, these techniques are computationally expensive to run and require up to thousands of CPU hours to…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-25 Thomas McClintock , Eduardo Rozo

The theory of ``Markov-up'' processes is being developed. This is a new class of stochastic processes with ``partial'' markovian features; it could also be called ``one-sided Markov''. Such a behavior may be found in the real world and in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-01 D. O. Kalikaeva

We present a numerical method to compute expectations of functionals of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process. We discuss time dependent functionals as well as deterministic time horizon problems. Our approach is based on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-31 Adrien Brandejsky , Benoîte de Saporta , François Dufour

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are based on the construction of a Markov chain with transition probabilities leaving invariant a probability distribution of interest. In this work, we look at these transition probabilities as…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Rocco Caprio , Adam M. Johansen

Based on the theory of stochastic chemical kinetics, the inherent randomness and stochasticity of biochemical reaction networks can be accurately described by discrete-state continuous-time Markov chains. The analysis of such processes is,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-10-14 Andreychenko Alexander , Mikeev Linar , Wolf Verena

The statistical properties of a stochastic process may be described (1)by the expectation values of the observables, (2)by the probability distribution functions or (3)by probability measures on path space. Here an analysis of level (3) is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 R. Vilela Mendes , R. Lima , T. Araujo

This paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a market where the drift is driven by an unobserved Markov chain. Information on the state of this chain is obtained from stock prices and expert opinions in the form of signals at…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-02-03 Rüdiger Frey , Abdelali Gabih , Ralf Wunderlich

This paper describes a data reduction technique in case of a markov chain of specified order. Instead of observing all the transitions in a markov chain we record only a few of them and treat the remaining part as missing. The decision…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-17 Atanu Kumar Ghosh , Arnab Chakraborty

Thanks to the high potential for profit, trading has become increasingly attractive to investors as the cryptocurrency and stock markets rapidly expand. However, because financial markets are intricate and dynamic, accurately predicting…

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

We consider the Markov chain approximations for singular stable-like processes. First we obtain properties of some Markov chains. Then we construct the approximating Markov chains and give a necessary condition for weak convergence of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-11 Fangjun Xu

In this paper we propose a new stochastic model based on a generalization of semi-Markov chains to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that the financial returns are described by a weighted indexed…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-05 Guglielmo D'Amico , Filippo Petroni

The availability of data on digital traces is growing to unprecedented sizes, but inferring actionable knowledge from large-scale data is far from being trivial. This is especially important for computational finance, where digital traces…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-05-13 David Garcia , Frank Schweitzer

With rapid development of blockchain technology as well as integration of various application areas, performance evaluation, performance optimization, and dynamic decision in blockchain systems are playing an increasingly important role in…

Performance · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Quan-Lin Li , Yan-Xia Chang , Qing Wang

We use Markov chains and numerical linear algebra -- and several CPU hours -- to determine the expected number of coins in a person's possession under certain conditions. We identify the spending strategy that results in the minimum…

History and Overview · Mathematics 2016-05-16 Lara Pudwell , Eric Rowland

Markov chains are simple yet powerful mathematical structures to model temporally dependent processes. They generally assume stationary data, i.e., fixed transition probabilities between observations/states. However, live, real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-27 Kutalmış Coşkun , Borahan Tümer , Bjarne C. Hiller , Martin Becker

Computational procedures for the stationary probability distribution, the group inverse of the Markovian kernel and the mean first passage times of an irreducible Markov chain, are developed using perturbations. The derivation of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-12 Jeffrey J. Hunter

We introduce a general method for the study of memory in symbolic sequences based on higher-order Markov analysis. The Markov process that best represents a sequence is expressed as a mixture of matrices of minimal orders, enabling the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-08-04 Unai Alvarez-Rodriguez , Vito Latora

A well-studied randomized election algorithm proceeds as follows: In each round the remaining candidates each toss a coin and leave the competition if they obtain heads. Of interest is the number of rounds required and the number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-12 Rudolf Grübel , Klaas Hagemann

This study explores the use of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) for real-time cryptocurrency price prediction and optimized trading strategies. Given the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, traditional forecasting models often fall…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-12 Shamima Nasrin Tumpa , Kehelwala Dewage Gayan Maduranga