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We present Speculative Rollout with Tree-Structured Cache (SRT), a simple, model-free approach to accelerate on-policy reinforcement learning (RL) for language models without sacrificing distributional correctness. SRT exploits the…
Modern empirical work in Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs often employs local polynomial estimation and inference with a mean square error (MSE) optimal bandwidth choice. This bandwidth yields an MSE-optimal RD treatment effect…
Spectral clustering has been one of the widely used methods for community detection in networks. However, large-scale networks bring computational challenges to the eigenvalue decomposition therein. In this paper, we study the spectral…
Statistical models that include random effects are commonly used to analyze longitudinal and correlated data, often with strong and parametric assumptions about the random effects distribution. There is marked disagreement in the literature…
Randomly censored survival data are frequently encountered in applied sciences including biomedical or reliability applications and clinical trial analyses. Testing the significance of statistical hypotheses is crucial in such analyses to…
Interference occurs when the treatment (or exposure) of one individual affects the outcomes of others. In some settings it may be reasonable to assume individuals can be partitioned into clusters such that there is no interference between…
Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and…
Predictive models are often required to produce reliable predictions under statistical conditions that are not matched to the training data. A common type of training-testing mismatch is covariate shift, where the conditional distribution…
Mixed effects (ME) models inform a vast array of problems in the physical and social sciences, and are pervasive in meta-analysis. We consider ME models where the random effects component is linear. We then develop an efficient approach for…
When fitting generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), one important decision to make relates to the choice of the random effects distribution. As the random effects are unobserved, misspecification of this distribution is a real…
Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the accepted standard for treatment effect estimation but they can be infeasible due to ethical reasons and prohibitive costs. Single-arm trials, where all patients belong to the treatment group, can…
Causal mediation analysis in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) is complicated by the presence of multiple mediators, intracluster correlation, and within-cluster interference. Existing mediation methods often fall short in accommodating…
In semivarying coefficient models for longitudinal/clustered data, usually of primary interest is usually the parametric component which involves unknown constant coefficients. First, we study semiparametric efficiency bound for estimation…
Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is important to tailor treatments to those individuals who would most likely benefit. However, conditional average treatment effect predictors may often be trained on one population but possibly…
Experimenters often collect baseline data to study heterogeneity. I propose the first valid confidence intervals for the VCATE, the treatment effect variance explained by observables. Conventional approaches yield incorrect coverage when…
This note introduces a doubly robust (DR) estimator for regression discontinuity (RD) designs. RD designs provide a quasi-experimental framework for estimating treatment effects, where treatment assignment depends on whether a running…
Dynamic assessment of mortality risk in the intensive care unit (ICU) can be used to stratify patients, inform about treatment effectiveness or serve as part of an early-warning system. Static risk scoring systems, such as APACHE or SAPS,…
There is a growing literature on design-based methods to estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for full sample analyses. This article extends these methods to estimate ATEs for discrete subgroups…
This paper motivates and develops a novel and focused approach to variable selection in linear regression models. For estimating the regression mean $\mu=\E\,(Y\midd x_0)$, for the covariate vector of a given individual, there is a list of…
The mixture cure rate model is the most commonly used cure rate model in the literature. In the context of mixture cure rate model, the standard approach to model the effect of covariates on the cured or uncured probability is to use a…