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Quadratic Hawkes (QHawkes) processes have proved effective at reproducing the statistics of price changes, capturing many of the stylised facts of financial markets. Motivated by the recently reported strong occurrence of endogenous…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-15 Cécilia Aubrun , Michael Benzaquen , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-24 Alex Ziyu Jiang , Abel Rodríguez

Given a stationary point process, an intensity burst is defined as a short time period during which the number of counts is larger than the typical count rate. It might signal a local non-stationarity or the presence of an external…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2018-04-04 Marcello Rambaldi , Vladimir Filimonov , Fabrizio Lillo

We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-14 Davis Berlind , Lorenzo Cappello , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

In this study, we introduce the first-of-its-kind class of tests for detecting change points in the distribution of a sequence of independent matrix-valued random variables. The tests are constructed using the weighted square integral…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-02 Žikica Lukić , Bojana Milošević

Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

We proposed a data-driven approach to dissect multivariate time series in order to discover multiple phases underlying dynamics of complex systems. This computing approach is developed as a multiple-dimension version of Hierarchical Factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-09 Xiaodong Wang , Fushing Hsieh

We tackle the change-point problem with data belonging to a general set. We build a penalty for choosing the number of change-points in the kernel-based method of Harchaoui and Capp{\'e} (2007). This penalty generalizes the one proposed by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-15 Sylvain Arlot , Alain Celisse , Zaid Harchaoui

The Hawkes process is a class of point processes whose future depends on their own history. Previous theoretical work on the Hawkes process is limited to a special case in which a past event can only increase the occurrence of future…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-21 Shizhe Chen , Ali Shojaie , Eric Shea-Brown , Daniela Witten

Change point analyses are concerned with identifying positions of an ordered stochastic process that undergo abrupt local changes of some underlying distribution. When multiple processes are observed, it is often the case that information…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-21 José J. Quinlan , Garritt L. Page , Luis M. Castro

The Hawkes process has become a standard method for modeling self-exciting event sequences with different event types. A recent work has generalized the Hawkes process to a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process, which enables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Zhen Han , Yunpu Ma , Yuyi Wang , Stephan Günnemann , Volker Tresp

A change point problem occurs in many statistical applications. If there exist change points in a model, it is harmful to make a statistical analysis without any consideration of the existence of the change points and the results derived…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-24 Xiaoping Shi , Yuehua Wu , Baisuo Jin

Change-points in time series data are usually defined as the time instants at which changes in their properties occur. Detecting change-points is critical in a number of applications as diverse as detecting credit card and insurance frauds,…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-09-10 André Ferrari , Cédric Richard , Anthony Bourrier , Ikram Bouchikhi

Hawkes processes have recently risen to the forefront of tools when it comes to modeling and generating sequential events data. Multidimensional Hawkes processes model both the self and cross-excitation between different types of events and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Renbo Zhao , Niccolò Dalmasso , Mohsen Ghassemi , Vamsi K. Potluru , Tucker Balch , Manuela Veloso

In this paper we propose an overview of the recent academic literature devoted to the applications of Hawkes processes in finance. Hawkes processes constitute a particular class of multivariate point processes that has become very popular…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-19 Emmanuel Bacry , Iacopo Mastromatteo , Jean-François Muzy

Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Maya Sadeler Perrin , Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Adeline Samson

Driven by the recent surge in neural-inspired modeling, point processes have gained significant traction in systems and control. While the Hawkes process is the standard model for characterizing random event sequences with memory,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Xinhui Rong , Girish N. Nair

We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Hongteng Xu , Dixin Luo , Hongyuan Zha

Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Negar Erfanian , Santiago Segarra , Maarten de Hoop

We consider the problem of robustly detecting changepoints in the variability of a sequence of independent multivariate functions. We develop a novel changepoint procedure, called the functional Kruskal--Wallis for covariance (FKWC)…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-08 Kelly Ramsay , Shoja'eddin Chenouri