Related papers: Mitigating Emergency Department Crowding With Stoc…
Despite recent advances in uncovering the quantitative features of stationary human activity patterns, many applications, from pandemic prediction to emergency response, require an understanding of how these patterns change when the…
We introduce a new method for forecasting emergency call arrival rates that combines integer-valued time series models with a dynamic latent factor structure. Covariate information is captured via simple constraints on the factor loadings.…
Background: The stochastic behavior of patient arrival at an emergency department (ED) complicates the management of an ED. More than 50% of hospitals ED capacity tends to operate beyond its normal capacity and eventually fails to deliver…
We present a multiscale approach to model diffusion in a crowded environment and its effect on the reaction rates. Diffusion in biological systems is often modeled by a discrete space jump process in order to capture the inherent noise of…
Predicting the behavior of crowds in complex environments is a key requirement in a multitude of application areas, including crowd and disaster management, architectural design, and urban planning. Given a crowd's immediate state, current…
Strong positive feedback is considered a necessary condition to observe abrupt shifts of ecosystems. A few previous studies have shown that demographic noise -- arising from the probabilistic and discrete nature of birth and death processes…
We consider excursions for a class of stochastic processes describing a population of discrete individuals experiencing density-limited growth, such that the population has a finite carrying capacity and behaves qualitatively like the…
Investigating congestion in train rapid transit systems (RTS) in today's urban cities is a challenge compounded by limited data availability and difficulties in model validation. Here, we integrate information from travel smart card data, a…
The simulation of pedestrian crowd that reflects reality is a major challenge for researches. Several crowd simulation models have been proposed such as cellular automata model, agent-based model, fluid dynamic model, etc. It is important…
Emergency department (ED) overcrowding and patient boarding represent critical systemic challenges that compromise care quality. We propose a threshold-based admission policy that redirects non-urgent patients to alternative care pathways,…
We studied the room evacuation problem within the context of the Social Force Model. We focused on a system of 225 pedestrians escaping from a room in different anxiety levels, and analyzed the clogging delays as the relevant magnitude…
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…
Urgent care clinics and emergency departments around the world periodically suffer from extended wait times beyond patient expectations due to inadequate staffing levels. These delays have been linked with adverse clinical outcomes.…
We propose a compartmental model for epidemiology wherein the population is split into groups with either comply or refuse to comply with protocols designed to slow the spread of a disease. Parallel to the disease spread, we assume that…
This article is on collective phenomena in pedestrian dynamics during the assembling and dispersal phases of gatherings. To date pedestrian dynamics have been primarily studied in the natural and engineering sciences. Pedestrians are…
Collective behavior of people in large groups and emergent crowd dynamics can have dangerous and disastrous results when panic is introduced. These events can be caused by emergency situations such as fires in a large building or a…
We consider a kinetic theory approach to model the evacuation of a crowd from bounded domains. The interactions of a person with other pedestrians and the environment, which includes walls, exits, and obstacles, are modeled by using tools…
In this paper we propose a novel macroscopic (fluid dynamics) model for describing pedestrian flow in low and high density regimes. The model is characterized by the fact that the maximal density reachable by the crowd - usually a fixed…
This paper proposes a crowd dynamic macroscopic model grounded on microscopic phenomenological observations which are upscaled by means of a formal mathematical procedure. The actual applicability of the model to real world problems is…
Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…