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The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

Flexible, goal-directed behavior is a fundamental aspect of human life. Based on the free energy minimization principle, the theory of active inference formalizes the generation of such behavior from a computational neuroscience…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-03 Fedor Scholz , Christian Gumbsch , Sebastian Otte , Martin V. Butz

The global inducing point variational approximation for BNNs is based on using a set of inducing inputs to construct a series of conditional distributions that accurately approximate the conditionals of the true posterior distribution. Our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-25 Matthew Ashman , Tommy Rochussen , Adrian Weller

Optimization is a ubiquitous modeling tool and is often deployed in settings which repeatedly solve similar instances of the same problem. Amortized optimization methods use learning to predict the solutions to problems in these settings,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Brandon Amos

Temporal prediction is critical for making intelligent and robust decisions in complex dynamic environments. Motion prediction needs to model the inherently uncertain future which often contains multiple potential outcomes, due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-10 Yichuan Charlie Tang , Ruslan Salakhutdinov

We propose a novel approach to the statistical analysis of stochastic simulation models and, especially, agent-based models (ABMs). Our main goal is to provide fully automated, model-independent and tool-supported techniques and algorithms…

General Economics · Economics 2023-11-09 Andrea Vandin , Daniele Giachini , Francesco Lamperti , Francesca Chiaromonte

We study a class of algorithms for solving bilevel optimization problems in both stochastic and deterministic settings when the inner-level objective is strongly convex. Specifically, we consider algorithms based on inexact implicit…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-12 Michael Arbel , Julien Mairal

In imitation learning, an agent learns how to behave in an environment with an unknown cost function by mimicking expert demonstrations. Existing imitation learning algorithms typically involve solving a sequence of planning or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-06-17 Jonathan Ho , Jayesh K. Gupta , Stefano Ermon

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease.…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-20 Huy Hoang Nguyen , Matthew B. Blaschko , Simo Saarakkala , Aleksei Tiulpin

Policy networks are a central feature of deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms for continuous control, enabling the estimation and sampling of high-value actions. From the variational inference perspective on RL, policy networks, when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Joseph Marino , Alexandre Piché , Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Yisong Yue

In model-based reinforcement learning, generative and temporal models of environments can be leveraged to boost agent performance, either by tuning the agent's representations during training or via use as part of an explicit planning…

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-01 Stephan Rasp , Sebastian Lerch

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a widespread approach to simulate complex systems. Advancements in computational processing and storage have facilitated the adoption of ABMs across many fields; however, ABMs face challenges that limit their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 M Lopes Alves , Joel Dyer , Doyne Farmer , Michael Wooldridge , Anisoara Calinescu

Present bias, the tendency to overvalue immediate rewards while undervaluing future ones, is a well-known barrier to achieving long-term goals. As artificial intelligence and behavioral economics increasingly focus on this phenomenon, the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-09-18 Yasunori Akagi , Hideaki Kim , Takeshi Kurashima

We apply recent methods in stochastic data analysis for discovering a set of few stochastic variables that represent the relevant information on a multivariate stochastic system, used as input for artificial neural networks models for air…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-16 Ana Russo , Frank Raischel , Pedro G. Lind

In computational reinforcement learning, a growing body of work seeks to express an agent's model of the world through predictions about future sensations. In this manuscript we focus on predictions expressed as General Value Functions:…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Alex Kearney , Anna Koop , Johannes Günther , Patrick M. Pilarski

Amortized simulator-based inference offers a powerful framework for tackling Bayesian inference in computational fields such as engineering or neuroscience, increasingly leveraging modern generative methods like diffusion models to map…

Learning the kernel parameters for Gaussian processes is often the computational bottleneck in applications such as online learning, Bayesian optimization, or active learning. Amortizing parameter inference over different datasets is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Matthias Bitzer , Mona Meister , Christoph Zimmer

Much of model-based reinforcement learning involves learning a model of an agent's world, and training an agent to leverage this model to perform a task more efficiently. While these models are demonstrably useful for agents, every…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2019-11-01 C. Daniel Freeman , Luke Metz , David Ha

In this work we explore the application of deep neural networks to the optimization of atomic layer deposition processes based on thickness values obtained at different points of an ALD reactor. We introduce a dataset designed to train…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-19 Angel Yanguas-Gil , Jeffrey W. Elam