Related papers: Money Growth and Inflation: A Quantile Sensitivity…
We consider the long standing puzzle of how to obtain meaningful probabilities in eternal inflation. We demonstrate a new algorithm to compute the probability distribution of pocket universe types, given a multivacua inflationary potential.…
In this paper we consider the problem of estimating quantiles when data are received sequentially (data stream). For real life data streams, the distribution of the data typically varies with time making estimation of quantiles challenging.…
The relationship between inflation and predictors such as unemployment is potentially nonlinear with a strength that varies over time, and prediction errors error may be subject to large, asymmetric shocks. Inspired by these concerns, we…
In the paper a problem of risk measures on a discrete-time market model with transaction costs is studied. Strategy effectiveness and shortfall risk is introduced. This paper is a generalization of quantile hedging presented in [4].
Inflation in the early Universe is one of the most promising probes of gravity in the high-energy regime. However, observable scales give access to a limited window in the inflationary dynamics. In this essay, we argue that quantum…
Empirical evidence suggests that there is little to no correlation between the rate of inflation and the size of price change. Economists have hitherto taken this to mean that monetary shocks do not generate much deviation in relative…
Recognizing, quantifying and visualizing associations between two variables is increasingly important. This paper investigates how a new function-valued measure of dependence, the quantile dependence function, can be used to construct tests…
The paper focuses on the link between information, investors' expectations and market price movement. EUR/USD market is examined from communication-theoretical perspective on the dynamics of information and meaning. We build upon the…
Wearable devices collect time-varying biobehavioral data, offering opportunities to investigate how behaviors influence health outcomes. However, these data often contain measurement error and excess zeros (due to nonwear, sedentary…
The stochastic inflation program is a framework for understanding the dynamics of a quantum scalar field driving an inflationary phase. Though widely used and accepted, there have over recent years been serious criticisms of this theory. In…
This paper proposes a framework to analyze the effects of counterfactual policies on the unconditional quantiles of an outcome variable. For a given counterfactual policy, we obtain identified sets for the effect of both marginal and global…
Since the beginning of this century the Colombian monetary authority has conducted monetary policy under a strategy based on setting targets for interest rate and inflation, while allowing the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar in domestic…
We develop analytic and numerical techniques for studying the statistics of slow-roll inflation in random Gaussian landscapes. As an illustration of these techniques, we analyze small-field inflation in a one-dimensional landscape. We…
Theories where the Planck scale is dynamically generated from dimensionless interactions provide predictive inflationary potentials and super-Planckian field variations. We first study the minimal single-field realisation in the low-energy…
In quantitative finance, it is often necessary to analyze the distribution of the sum of specific functions of observed values at discrete points of an underlying process. Examples include the probability density function, the hedging…
The emerging system at the European level can be conceptualized as a pattern of relations among member states that tends to be reproduced despite disturbances in individual trajectories. The Markov property is used as an indicator of…
Establishing unambiguously the existence of speculative bubbles is an on-going controversy complicated by the need of defining a model of fundamental prices. Here, we present a novel empirical method which bypasses all the difficulties of…
The stability of money value is an important requisite for a functioning economy, yet it critically depends on the actions of participants in the market themselves. Here we model the value of money as a dynamical variable that results from…
Understanding the behavior of the universe at large depends critically on insights about the smallest units of matter and their fundamental interactions. Inflationary cosmology is a highly successful framework for exploring these…
In the past decade, the importance of dissipation and fluctuation to inflationary dynamics has been realized and has led to a new picture of inflation called warm inflation. Although these phenomena are common to condensed matter systems,…