Related papers: Money Growth and Inflation: A Quantile Sensitivity…
The problem of causal inference is to determine if a given probability distribution on observed variables is compatible with some causal structure. The difficult case is when the causal structure includes latent variables. We here introduce…
The "Money Exchange Model" is a type of agent-based simulation model used to study how wealth distribution and inequality evolve through monetary exchanges between individuals. The primary focus of this model is to identify the limiting…
The distribution of money is analysed in connection with the Boltzmann distribution of energy in the degenerate states of molecules. Plots of the population density of income distribution for various countries are well reproduced by a Gamma…
The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country's inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to…
Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely…
Modeling fractional data in various real life scenarios is a challenging task. This paper consider situations where fractional data is observed on the interval [0,1]. The unit-Lindley distribution has been discussed in the literature where…
In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…
Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…
This paper uses new and recently introduced mathematical techniques to undertake a data-driven study on the systemic nature of global inflation. We start by investigating country CPI inflation over the past 70 years. There, we highlight the…
I propose an approach to quantify attention to inflation in the data and show that the decrease in the volatility and persistence of U.S. inflation after the Great Inflation period was accompanied by a decline in the public's attention to…
This paper studies an interacting particle system of interest in econophysics inspired from a model introduced in the physics literature. The original model consists of the customers of a single bank characterized by their capital, and the…
Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost…
This paper is concerned with general spatially explicit versions of three stochastic models for the dynamics of money that have been introduced and studied numerically by statistical physicists: the uniform reshuffling model, the immediate…
In this Letter we study the effects of the Modified Uncertainty Principle as proposed in [8] on the inflationary dynamics of the early universe in both standard and Randall-Sundrum type II scenarios. We find that the quantum gravitational…
Causality is a seminal concept in science: Any research discipline, from sociology and medicine to physics and chemistry, aims at understanding the causes that could explain the correlations observed among some measured variables. While…
We consider a simple model of a closed economic system where the total money is conserved and the number of economic agents is fixed. In analogy to statistical systems in equilibrium, money and the average money per economic agent are…
We study the distributions of money in a simple closed economic system for different types of monetary transactions. We know that for arbitrary and random sharing but locally conserving money transactions, the money distribution goes to the…
Monetary inflation is a sustained increase in the money supply than can result in price inflation, which is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services. The objectives of this paper were to develop economic models to (1)…
We introduce Inflation, a Python library for assessing whether an observed probability distribution is compatible with a causal explanation. This is a central problem in both theoretical and applied sciences, which has recently witnessed…
While inflation gives an appealing explanation of observed cosmological data, there are a wide range of different inflation models, providing differing predictions for the initial perturbations. Typically models are motivated either by…