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Learning dynamical systems from incomplete or noisy data is inherently ill-posed, as a single observation may correspond to multiple plausible futures. While physics-based ensemble forecasting relies on perturbing initial states to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Siddharth Rout , Eldad Haber , Stephane Gaudreault

We investigate the monitored quantum dynamics of Gaussian mixed states and derive the universal Fokker-Planck equations that govern the stochastic time evolution of entire density-matrix spectra, obtaining their exact solutions. From these…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-04-24 Zhenyu Xiao , Tomi Ohtsuki , Kohei Kawabata

The particle filter (PF) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) are widely used for approximate inference in state-space models. From a Bayesian perspective, these algorithms represent the prior by an ensemble of particles and update it to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Chengxin Gong , Wei Lin , Cheng Zhang

This paper introduces the ensemble directional Kalman filter (EnDKF), an ensemble-based Kalman filtering approach for pose tracking that jointly estimates an object's position and attitude using ideas from directional statistics. The EnDKF…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Tianlu Lu , Asif Sijan , Thomas Noh , Huaijin Chen , Andrey A. Popov

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) belongs to the class of iterative particle filtering methods and can be used for solving control--to--observable inverse problems. In this context, the EnKF is known as Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI). In…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-02-17 Dieter Armbruster , Michael Herty , Giuseppe Visconti

In this paper, we introduce an adaptive kernel method for solving the optimal filtering problem. The computational framework that we adopt is the Bayesian filter, in which we recursively generate an optimal estimate for the state of a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-11 Zezhong Zhang , Richard Archibald , Feng Bao

Many real-world systems modeled using differential equations involve unknown or uncertain parameters. Standard approaches to address parameter estimation inverse problems in this setting typically focus on estimating constants; yet some…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-03-25 Anna Fitzpatrick , Molly Folino , Andrea Arnold

Data assimilation provides algorithms for widespread applications in various fields. It is of practical use to deal with a large amount of information in the complex system that is hard to estimate. Weather forecasting is one of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Yihua Yang

The reconstruction of the dynamics of an observed physical system as a surrogate model has been brought to the fore by recent advances in machine learning. To deal with partial and noisy observations in that endeavor, machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-06 Marc Bocquet , Alban Farchi , Quentin Malartic

We present a model-based output-only method for identifying from time series the parameters governing the dynamics of stochastically forced oscillators. In this context, suitable models of the oscillator's damping and stiffness properties…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2019-10-04 Edouard Boujo , Nicolas Noiray

Particle flow filters solve Bayesian inference problems by smoothly transforming a set of particles into samples from the posterior distribution. Particles move in state space under the flow of an McKean-Vlasov-Ito process. This work…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-02 Amit N Subrahmanya , Andrey A Popov , Adrian Sandu

Real-time nonlinear Bayesian filtering algorithms are overwhelmed by data volume, velocity and increasing complexity of computational models. In this paper, we propose a novel ensemble based nonlinear Bayesian filtering approach which only…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-05 Xiao Lin , Gabriel Terejanu

This paper deals with state estimation of stochastic models with linear state dynamics, continuous or discrete in time. The emphasis is laid on a numerical solution to the state prediction by the time-update step of the grid-point-based…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-21 J. Matoušek , J. Duník , M. Brandner

Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an important data assimilation method for high dimensional geophysical systems. Efficient implementation of EnKF in practice often involves the localization technique, which updates each component using only…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-04 Xin T. Tong

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a popular technique for performing inference in state-space models (SSMs), particularly when the dynamic process is high-dimensional. Unlike reweighting methods such as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC, i.e.…

The filtering distribution in hidden Markov models evolves according to the law of a mean-field model in state-observation space. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approximates this mean-field model with an ensemble of interacting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-25 Eviatar Bach , Ricardo Baptista , Edoardo Calvello , Bohan Chen , Andrew Stuart

Data assimilation algorithms integrate prior information from numerical model simulations with observed data. Ensemble-based filters, regarded as state-of-the-art, are widely employed for large-scale estimation tasks in disciplines such as…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-24 Iris Rammelmüller , Gottfried Hastermann , Jana de Wiljes

The Fokker-Planck equations for stochastic dynamical systems, with non-Gaussian $\alpha-$stable symmetric L\'evy motions, have a nonlocal or fractional Laplacian term. This nonlocality is the manifestation of the effect of non-Gaussian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2013-10-30 Ting Gao , Jinqiao Duan , Xiaofan Li

Populations are made up of an integer number of individuals and are subject to stochastic birth-death processes whose rates may vary in time. Useful quantities, like the chance of ultimate fixation, satisfy an appropriate difference…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-22 Jayant Pande , Nadav M. Shnerb

Data assimilation combines information from models, measurements, and priors to estimate the state of a dynamical system such as the atmosphere. The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a family of ensemble-based data assimilation approaches…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2014-12-09 Ahmed Attia , Adrian Sandu
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