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We introduce the data driven extreme value distribution (DDEVD) estimator, a kernel-based method for estimating extreme value distributions from data. We derive its mean integrated squared error (MISE) in detail, use it to compute the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-21 Michael Sandbichler , Tobias Hell

Reweighting a distribution to minimize a distance to a target distribution is a powerful and flexible strategy for estimating a wide range of causal effects, but can be challenging in practice because optimal weights typically depend on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-16 Oscar Clivio , Avi Feller , Chris Holmes

Instrumental variables (IVs) are often continuous, arising in diverse fields such as economics, epidemiology, and the social sciences. Existing approaches for continuous IVs typically impose strong parametric models or assume homogeneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-17 Mei Dong , Lin Liu , Dingke Tang , Geoffrey Liu , Wei Xu , Linbo Wang

Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are mediation estimands that overcome certain identifiability problems of natural effects, has been advanced…

Generalized linear models are a popular tool in applied statistics, with their maximum likelihood estimators enjoying asymptotic Gaussianity and efficiency. As all models are wrong, it is desirable to understand these estimators' behaviours…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-10 Elliot H. Young , Rajen D. Shah

We investigate the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under a very general setup where the covariates can be high-dimensional, highly correlated, and can have sparse nonlinear effects on the propensity and outcome…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Jianqing Fan , Soham Jana , Sanjeev Kulkarni , Qishuo Yin

We address the challenge of conducting inference for a categorical treatment effect related to a binary outcome variable while taking into account high-dimensional baseline covariates. The conventional technique used to establish…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-27 Abhishek Ojha , Naveen N. Narisetty

Recent work has focused on the problem of nonparametric estimation of information divergence functionals. Many existing approaches are restrictive in their assumptions on the density support set or require difficult calculations at the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-07-30 Kevin R. Moon , Kumar Sricharan , Kristjan Greenewald , Alfred O. Hero

This paper describes the RRMSE (Relative Root Mean Square Error) based weights to weight the occurrences of predictive values before averaging for the ensemble voting regression. The core idea behind ensemble regression is to combine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Shikun Chen , Nguyen Manh Luc

A key advance in learning generative models is the use of amortized inference distributions that are jointly trained with the models. We find that existing training objectives for variational autoencoders can lead to inaccurate amortized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-31 Shengjia Zhao , Jiaming Song , Stefano Ermon

In a Phase II dose-finding study with a placebo control, a new drug with several dose levels is compared with a placebo to test for the effectiveness of the new drug. The main focus of such studies often lies in the characterization of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-14 Saswati Saha , Werner Brannath

Robotics Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) is governed by complex and nonlinear process dynamics coupling thermal field to the build geometry. The process may be regarded as a multi-input/multi-output dynamical system with welding…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Chen-Lung Lu , John Wen

Propensity scores are commonly used to estimate treatment effects from observational data. We argue that the probabilistic output of a learned propensity score model should be calibrated -- i.e., a predictive treatment probability of 90%…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-06 Shachi Deshpande , Volodymyr Kuleshov

We propose a new estimator for average causal effects of a binary treatment with panel data in settings with general treatment patterns. Our approach augments the popular two-way-fixed-effects specification with unit-specific weights that…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-06 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido W. Imbens , Lihua Lei , Xiaoman Luo

One of the primary goals of statistical precision medicine is to learn optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs). The classification-based, or machine learning-based, approach to estimating optimal ITRs was first introduced in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-18 Sophia Yazzourh , Nikki L. B. Freeman

Generalized Advantage Estimation (GAE) has been used to mitigate the computational complexity of reinforcement learning (RL) by employing an exponentially weighted estimation of the advantage function to reduce the variance in policy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-24 Shahil Shaik , Jonathon M. Smereka , Yue Wang

This paper develops methods for estimating the natural direct and indirect effects in causal mediation analysis. The efficient influence function-based estimator (EIF-based estimator) and the inverse probability weighting estimator (IPW…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-11 Kentaro Kawato

As an important problem in causal inference, we discuss the estimation of treatment effects (TEs). Representing the confounder as a latent variable, we propose Intact-VAE, a new variant of variational autoencoder (VAE), motivated by the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-22 Pengzhou Wu , Kenji Fukumizu

Single-parameter summaries of variable effects in regression settings are desirable for ease of interpretation. However (partially) linear models for example, which would deliver these, may fit poorly to the data. On the other hand, an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-28 Harvey Klyne , Rajen D. Shah

When estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, missing outcome data can complicate treatment effect estimation, causing certain subgroups of the population to be poorly represented. In this work, we discuss this commonly overlooked…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-15 Matthew Pryce , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Ruth H. Keogh , Stijn Vansteelandt
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