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Traditionally Bayesian decision-theoretic design of experiments proceeds by choosing a design to minimise expectation of a given loss function over the space of all designs. The loss function encapsulates the aim of the experiment, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-10 Antony M. Overstall , James M. McGree

The theory of stochastic approximations form the theoretical foundation for studying convergence properties of many popular recursive learning algorithms in statistics, machine learning and statistical physics. Large deviations for…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-05 Henrik Hult , Adam Lindhe , Pierre Nyquist , Guo-Jhen Wu

Data analysis and machine learning have become an integrative part of the modern scientific methodology, offering automated procedures for the prediction of a phenomenon based on past observations, unraveling underlying patterns in data and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-04 Gilles Louppe

The purpose of this paper is to explain the interest and importance of (approximate) models and model selection in Statistics. Starting from the very elementary example of histograms we present a general notion of finite dimensional model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Lucien Birgé

This paper investigates the supervised learning problem with observations drawn from certain general stationary stochastic processes. Here by \emph{general}, we mean that many stationary stochastic processes can be included. We show that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-11 Hanyuan Hang , Yunlong Feng , Ingo Steinwart , Johan A. K. Suykens

Reproducibility is imperative for any scientific discovery. More often than not, modern scientific findings rely on statistical analysis of high-dimensional data. At a minimum, reproducibility manifests itself in stability of statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-02 Bin Yu

Eliciting preferences from human judgements is inherently imprecise, yet most decision analysis methods force a single priority vector from pairwise comparisons, discarding the information embedded in inconsistencies. We instead leverage…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-27 Salvatore Greco , Sajid Siraj , Michele Lundy

Selective classification enhances the reliability of predictive models by allowing them to abstain from making uncertain predictions. In this work, we revisit the design of optimal selection functions through the lens of the Neyman--Pearson…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Alvin Heng , Harold Soh

We consider Mc Kean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs), which are SDEs where the drift and diffusion coefficients depend not only on the state of the unknown process but also on its probability distribution. This type of SDEs…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-12 Khaled Bahlali , Mohamed Amine Mezerdi , Brahim Mezerdi

The stochastic multi-arm bandit problem has been extensively studied under standard assumptions on the arm's distribution (e.g bounded with known support, exponential family, etc). These assumptions are suitable for many real-world problems…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-19 Dorian Baudry , Patrick Saux , Odalric-Ambrym Maillard

Stochastic discriminative EM (sdEM) is an online-EM-type algorithm for discriminative training of probabilistic generative models belonging to the exponential family. In this work, we introduce and justify this algorithm as a stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-04-05 Andres R. Masegosa

Statistical learning (SL) includes methods that extract knowledge from complex data. SL methods beyond generalized linear models are being increasingly implemented in public health research and epidemiology because they can perform better…

Despite extensive research, many methods in software quality prediction still exhibit some degree of uncertainty in their results. Rather than treating this as a problem, this paper asks if this uncertainty is a resource that can simplify…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2018-03-14 Wei Fu , Tim Menzies , Di Chen , Amritanshu Agrawal

Data-driven control based on the fundamental lemma by Willems et al. is frequently considered for deterministic LTI systems subject to measurement noise. However, besides measurement noise, stochastic disturbances might also directly affect…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-08-14 Guanru Pan , Ruchuan Ou , Timm Faulwasser

In this study, a new and natural way of constructing a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is proposed. This approach is natural in the sense that the disease transmission rate, $\beta$, is substituted with a generic,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-07 Berk Tan Perçin

Inference based on the penalized density ratio model is proposed and studied. The model under consideration is specified by assuming that the log--likelihood function of two unknown densities is of some parametric form. The model has been…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-07-17 Konstantinos Fokianos

We introduce a new approach for prudent risk evaluation based on stochastic dominance, which will be called the model aggregation (MA) approach. In contrast to the classic worst-case risk (WR) approach, the MA approach produces not only a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-11 Tiantian Mao , Ruodu Wang , Qinyu Wu

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a foundational algorithm for large-scale statistical learning and stochastic optimization. However, statistical inference based on SGD iterates remains challenging when stochastic gradients have infinite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn , Wenhao Yang

Symbolic data analysis (SDA) aggregates large individual-level datasets into a small number of distributional summaries, such as random rectangles or random histograms. The inference is carried out using these summaries in place of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Yu Yang , Matias Quiroz , Boris Beranger , Robert Kohn , Scott A. Sisson

Stein discrepancies (SDs) monitor convergence and non-convergence in approximate inference when exact integration and sampling are intractable. However, the computation of a Stein discrepancy can be prohibitive if the Stein operator - often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-26 Jackson Gorham , Anant Raj , Lester Mackey