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Related papers: Stein Variational Rare Event Simulation

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Recently there have been increasing interests in learning and inference with implicit distributions (i.e., distributions without tractable densities). To this end, we develop a gradient estimator for implicit distributions based on Stein's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-11 Jiaxin Shi , Shengyang Sun , Jun Zhu

To reduce the cost of estimating the probability of a rare event involving a very large number of random parameters, we propose a new strategy for dimension reduction coupled with a surrogate model for the expensive part of the algorithm.…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-01 Valentin Breaz , Miguel Munoz Zuniga , Olivier Zahm , Richard Wilkinson

Traditional preamble detection algorithms have low accuracy in the grant-based random access scheme in massive machine-type communication (mMTC). We present a novel preamble detection algorithm based on Stein variational gradient descent…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-12 Xin Zhu , Hongyi Pan , Salih Atici , Ahmet Enis Cetin

Recently, fitting probabilistic models have gained importance in many areas but estimation of such distributional models with very large data sets is a difficult task. In particular, the use of rather complex models can easily lead to…

This paper addresses the computational challenges in reliability-based topology optimization (RBTO) of structures associated with the estimation of statistics of the objective and constraints using standard sampling methods, and overcomes…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-27 Subhayan De , Kurt Maute , Alireza Doostan

Event-based vision encodes dynamic scenes as asynchronous spatio-temporal spikes called events. To leverage conventional image processing pipelines, events are typically binned into frames. However, binning functions are discontinuous,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Jinze Chen , Wei Zhai , Han Han , Tiankai Ma , Yang Cao , Bin Li , Zheng-Jun Zha

Importance sampling is a rare event simulation technique used in Monte Carlo simulations to bias the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By assigning appropriate weights to sampled points, importance sampling allows…

Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-15 Nisrine Madhar , Juliette Legrand , Maud Thomas

We develop a method for the evaluation of extreme event statistics associated with nonlinear dynamical systems, using a small number of samples. From an initial dataset of design points, we formulate a sequential strategy that provides the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Mustafa A. Mohamad , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

Simulation-based inference has been popular for amortized Bayesian computation. It is typical to have more than one posterior approximation, from different inference algorithms, different architectures, or simply the randomness of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-04 Yuling Yao , Bruno Régaldo-Saint Blancard , Justin Domke

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) [Liu and Wang, 2016] performs approximate Bayesian inference by representing the posterior with a set of particles. However, SVGD suffers from variance collapse, i.e. poor predictions due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-27 Ola Rønning , Eric Nalisnick , Christophe Ley , Padhraic Smyth , Thomas Hamelryck

In this paper we study rare events associated to solutions of elliptic partial differential equations with spatially varying random coefficients. The random coefficients follow the lognormal distribution, which is determined by a Gaussian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-04-17 Jingchen Liu , Jianfeng Lu , Xiang Zhou

Variational Bayes (VB) is a critical method in machine learning and statistics, underpinning the recent success of Bayesian deep learning. The natural gradient is an essential component of efficient VB estimation, but it is prohibitively…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-06-22 Anna Lopatnikova , Minh-Ngoc Tran

Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-09 Clement Dombry , Sebastian Engelke , Marco Oesting

When maximum likelihood estimation is infeasible, one often turns to score matching, contrastive divergence, or minimum probability flow to obtain tractable parameter estimates. We provide a unifying perspective of these techniques as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-07 Alessandro Barp , Francois-Xavier Briol , Andrew B. Duncan , Mark Girolami , Lester Mackey

Estimating the expectations of functionals applied to sums of random variables (RVs) is a well-known problem encountered in many challenging applications. Generally, closed-form expressions of these quantities are out of reach. A naive…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-10-27 Eya Ben Amar , Nadhir Ben Rached , Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Raúl Tempone

Natural-gradient methods enable fast and simple algorithms for variational inference, but due to computational difficulties, their use is mostly limited to \emph{minimal} exponential-family (EF) approximations. In this paper, we extend…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Wu Lin , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Mark Schmidt

A new method called "variational sampling" is proposed to estimate integrals under probability distributions that can be evaluated up to a normalizing constant. The key idea is to fit the target distribution with an exponential family model…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-15 Alexis Roche

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) refers to a class of methods for Bayesian inference based on interacting particle systems. In this paper, we consider the originally proposed deterministic dynamics as well as a stochastic variant,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Nikolas Nüsken , D. R. Michiel Renger

With the rapid development of data collection and aggregation technologies in many scientific disciplines, it is becoming increasingly ubiquitous to conduct large-scale or online regression to analyze real-world data and unveil real-world…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-22 Jinfeng Xu , Zhiliang Ying , Na Zhao