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What happen in the brain when human beings play games with computers? Here a simple zero-sum game was conducted to investigate how people make decision via their brain even they know that their opponent is a computer. There are two choices…
Left, Center, Right is a popular dice game. We analyze the game using Markov chain and Monte Carlo methods. We compute the expected game length for two to eight players and determine the probability of winning for each player in the game.…
"The chance to win given a certain move" is an easily obtainable quantity from data and often quoted in gaming statistics. It is also the fundamental quantity that reinforcement learning AI bases on. Unfortunately, this conditional…
A decision maker repeatedly chooses one of a finite set of actions. In each period, the decision maker's payoff depends on fixed basic payoff of the chosen action and the frequency with which the action has been chosen in the past. We…
We consider a card guessing game with complete feedback. A ordered deck of n cards labeled 1 up to n is riffle-shuffled exactly one time. Then, the goal of the game is to maximize the number of correct guesses of the cards, where one after…
A valuation for a player in a game in extensive form is an assignment of numeric values to the players moves. The valuation reflects the desirability moves. We assume a myopic player, who chooses a move with the highest valuation.…
Systemic bias with respect to gender, race and ethnicity, often unconscious, is prevalent in datasets involving choices among individuals. Consequently, society has found it challenging to alleviate bias and achieve diversity in a way that…
Two players alternate tossing a biased coin where the probability of getting heads is p. The current player is awarded alpha points for tails and alpha+beta for heads. The first player reaching n points wins. For a completely unfair coin…
Binomial distributions capture the probabilities of `heads' outcomes when a (biased) coin is tossed multiple times. The coin may be identified with a distribution on the two-element set {0,1}, where the 1 outcome corresponds to `head'. One…
Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. We collected $350{,}757$ coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing…
We provide a unifying way to analyze how risk aversion changes bidding in auctions by asking which bids become more attractive as bidders become more risk averse. In first-price auctions, under two payoff conditions--winning is never worse…
Simulating an arbitrary discrete distribution $D \in [0, 1]^n$ using fair coin tosses incurs trade-offs between entropy complexity and space and time complexity. Shannon's theory suggests that $H(D)$ tosses are necessary and sufficient, but…
The Labouchere gambling system is hypothesized to increase the probability of winning a predetermined arbitrary profit in a gambling system such as a coin flip or a roulette game in which both payouts and odds are 1:1. However, use of the…
Many have dedicated their time trying to determine the ideal conditions for a cylinder to have equal probabilities of falling with one of its faces facing upwards or on its side. However, to this day, there is no concrete analysis of what…
We study an evolutionary game of chance in which the probabilities for different outcomes (e.g., heads or tails) depend on the amount wagered on those outcomes. The game is perhaps the simplest possible probabilistic game in which…
"Clipping" (a.k.a. importance weight truncation) is a widely used variance-reduction technique for counterfactual off-policy estimators. Like other variance-reduction techniques, clipping reduces variance at the cost of increased bias.…
Unusually large prize pools in lotteries like Mega Millions and Powerball attract additional bettors, which increases the likelihood that multiple winners will have to share the pool. Thus, the expected value of a lottery ticket decreases…
We consider systems of "pinned balls," i.e., balls that have fixed positions and pseudo-velocities. Pseudo-velocities change according to the same rules as those for velocities of totally elastic collisions between moving balls. The times…
We present a framework for analyzing the near miss effect in lotteries. A decision maker (DM) facing a lottery, falsely interprets losing outcomes that are close to winning ones, as a sign that success is within reach. As a result of this…
We consider the Independent Chip Model (ICM) for expected value in poker tournaments. Our first result is that participating in a fair bet with one other player will always lower one's expected value under this model. Our second result is…