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Machine learning models have emerged as a very effective strategy to sidestep time-consuming electronic-structure calculations, enabling accurate simulations of greater size, time scale and complexity. Given the interpolative nature of…

This book chapter introduces the principles and practical applications of uncertainty quantification in machine learning. It explains how to identify and distinguish between different types of uncertainty and presents methods for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Hans Weytjens , Wouter Verbeke

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Xiaoping Du

Knowing the uncertainty in a prediction is critical when making expensive investment decisions and when patient safety is paramount, but machine learning (ML) models in drug discovery typically provide only a single best estimate and ignore…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Stanley E. Lazic , Dominic P. Williams

Molecular dynamics simulation is now a widespread approach for understanding complex systems on the atomistic scale. It finds applications from physics and chemistry to engineering, life and medical science. In the last decade, the approach…

Computational Physics · Physics 2021-04-28 Shunzhou Wan , Robert C. Sinclair , Peter V. Coveney

In the context of industrially mass-manufactured products, quality management is based on physically inspecting a small sample from a large batch and reasoning about the batch's quality conformance. When complementing physical inspections…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-22 Simon Cramer , Tobias Müller , Robert H. Schmitt

This review aims to draw attention to two issues of concern when we set out to make machine learning work in the chemical and materials domain, i.e., statistical loss function metrics for the validation and benchmarking of data-derived…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2021-01-26 Gaurav Vishwakarma , Aditya Sonpal , Johannes Hachmann

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Venkat Nemani , Luca Biggio , Xun Huan , Zhen Hu , Olga Fink , Anh Tran , Yan Wang , Xiaoge Zhang , Chao Hu

In order to achieve a more virtual design and certification process of jet engines in aviation industry, the uncertainty bounds for computational fluid dynamics have to be known. This work shows the application of a machine learning…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-02-07 Marcel Matha , Christian Morsbach

Machine learning (ML) offers promising new approaches to tackle complex problems and has been increasingly adopted in chemical and materials sciences. Broadly speaking, ML models employ generic mathematical functions and attempt to learn…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-08-21 Jin Dai , Santosh Adhikari , Mingjian Wen

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Uncertainty in machine learning is not generally taught as general knowledge in Machine Learning course curricula. In this paper we propose a short curriculum for a course about uncertainty in machine learning, and complement the course…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-20 Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Statistical learning algorithms provide a generally-applicable framework to sidestep time-consuming experiments, or accurate physics-based modeling, but they introduce a further source of error on top of the intrinsic limitations of the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-05-17 Matthias Kellner , Michele Ceriotti

Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-25 Xu Wu , Lesego E. Moloko , Pavel M. Bokov , Gregory K. Delipei , Joshua Kaizer , Kostadin N. Ivanov

If Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial to achieve trustworthy Machine Learning (ML), most UQ methods suffer from disparate and inconsistent evaluation protocols. We claim this inconsistency results from the unclear requirements the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-28 Victor Bouvier , Simona Maggio , Alexandre Abraham , Léo Dreyfus-Schmidt

Uncertainty quantification of complex technical systems is often based on a computer model of the system. As all models such a computer model is always wrong in the sense that it does not describe the reality perfectly. The purpose of this…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-12-18 Sebastian Kersting , Michael Kohler

Probabilistic graphical models are a fundamental tool in probabilistic modeling, machine learning and artificial intelligence. They allow us to integrate in a natural way expert knowledge, physical modeling, heterogeneous and correlated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-20 Panagiota Birmpa , Jinchao Feng , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Luc Rey-Bellet

Modern autonomous systems with machine learning components often use uncertainty quantification to help produce assurances about system operation. However, there is a lack of consensus in the community on what uncertainty is and how to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-27 Sampada Deglurkar , Haotian Shen , Anish Muthali , Marco Pavone , Dragos Margineantu , Peter Karkus , Boris Ivanovic , Claire J. Tomlin

The application of machine learning (ML) techniques in wireless communication domain has seen a tremendous growth over the years especially in the wireless sensing domain. However, the questions surrounding the ML model's inference…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-13 Amit Kachroo , Sai Prashanth Chinnapalli

The adaptation and use of Machine Learning (ML) in our daily lives has led to concerns in lack of transparency, privacy, reliability, among others. As a result, we are seeing research in niche areas such as interpretability, causality, bias…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Fahimeh Fakour , Ali Mosleh , Ramin Ramezani
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