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We consider asymptotics for the maximum of a modulated random walk whose increments $\xi_n^{X_n}$ are heavy-tailed. Of particular interest is the case where the modulating process $X$ is regenerative. Here we study also the maximum of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Sergey Foss , Stan Zachary

Using intermittent maps with infinite invariant measures, we investigate the universality of time-averaged observables under aging conditions. According to Aaronson-Darling-Kac theorem, in non-aged dynamical systems with infinite invariant…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-06-11 Takuma Akimoto , Eli Barkai

We consider a random walk on a Galton-Watson tree whose offspring distribution has a regular varying tail of order $\kappa\in (1,2)$. We prove the convergence of the renormalised height function of the walk towards the continuous-time…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-27 Dongjian Qian , Yang Xiao

In this work we investigate a class of random walks that interacts with its environment called Tree Builder Random Walk (TBRW). In our settings, at each step, the walker adds a random number of vertices to its position sampled according to…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-31 Caio Alves , Rodrigo Ribeiro

In this paper, according to a certain criterion, we divide the exponential distribution class into three subclasses. One of them is closely related to the regular-variation-tailed distribution class, so it is called the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-30 Zhaolei Cui , Edward Omey , Wenyuan Wang , Yuebao Wang

Importance sampling algorithms for heavy-tailed random walks are considered. Using a specification with algorithms based on mixtures of the original distribution with some other distribution, sufficient conditions for obtaining bounded…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-21 Henrik Hult , Jens Svensson

In this paper we propagate a large deviations approach for proving limit theory for (generally) multivariate time series with heavy tails. We make this notion precise by introducing regularly varying time series. We provide general large…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-02 T. Mikosch , O. Wintenberger

Animal behavior is shaped by a myriad of mechanisms acting on a wide range of scales, which hampers quantitative reasoning and the identification of general principles. Here, we combine data analysis and theory to investigate the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-04-25 Antonio Carlos Costa , Gautam Sridhar , Claire Wyart , Massimo Vergassola

It has been observed in numerous experiments, simulations, and various theoretical treatments that the spreading of particles can be modeled by the continuous-time random walk. We consider two well-known cases, i.e., Gaussian displacements…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-21 Wanli Wang , Kaixin Zhang , Yuda Cheng

Heavy-tailed distributions are frequently used to enhance the robustness of regression and classification methods to outliers in output space. Often, however, we are confronted with "outliers" in input space, which are isolated observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-06-24 Fabian L. Wauthier , Michael I. Jordan

In this paper, we consider the state-dependent reflecting random walk on a half-strip. We provide explicit criteria for (positive) recurrence, and an explicit expression for the stationary distribution. As a consequence, the light-tailed…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-31 Wenming Hong , Meijuan Zhang , Yiqiang Q. Zhao

We present large deviations estimates in the supremum norm for a system of independent random walks superposed with a birth-and-death dynamics evolving on the discrete torus with $N$ sites. The scaling limit considered is the so-called…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-26 Tertuliano Franco , Luana A. Gurgel , Bernardo N. B. de Lima

For first passage percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^2$ with i.i.d. bounded edge weights, we consider the upper tail large deviation event; i.e., the rare situation where the first passage time between two points at distance $n$, is macroscopically…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-05 Riddhipratim Basu , Shirshendu Ganguly , Allan Sly

Take a continuous-time Galton-Watson tree. If the system survives until a large time $T$, then choose $k$ particles uniformly from those alive. What does the ancestral tree drawn out by these $k$ particles look like? Some special cases are…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-14 Simon C. Harris , Samuel G. G. Johnston , Matthew I. Roberts

We consider a multi-type branching random walk with displacements that have either regularly varying or semi-exponential tails. We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the rightmost particle in irreducible and reducible regimes and…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-19 Krzysztof Kowalski

We show that a simple mechanistic model of spatial dispersal for settling organisms, subject to parameter variability, can generate heavy-tailed radial probability density functions. The movement of organisms in the model consists of a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-23 Luis F. Gordillo , Priscilla E. Greenwood

We consider real-valued branching random walks and prove a large deviation result for the position of the rightmost particle. The position of the rightmost particle is the maximum of a collection of a random number of dependent random…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-27 Nina Gantert , Thomas Höfelsauer

A record is an entry in a time series that is larger or smaller than all previous entries. If the time series consists of independent, identically distributed random variables with a superimposed linear trend, record events are positively…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-30 J. Franke , G. Wergen , J. Krug

Do biological cells sense time by the number of their divisions, a process that ends at senescence? We consider the question "can the cell's perception of time be expressed through the length of the shortest telomere?" The answer is that…

Subcellular Processes · Quantitative Biology 2017-11-15 Zeev Schuss , Kimsy Tor , David Holcman

We consider a branching random walk on a $d$-ary tree of height $n$ ($n \in \mathbb{N}$), under the presence of a hard wall which restricts each value to be positive, where $d$ is a natural number satisfying $d\geqslant2$. The question of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-23 Rishideep Roy